Will 2010 Stay Hot? And Joe Bastardi: Return To 1970s Cold

With all the talk about heat waves and alleged record high global temps, one could be led to think that manmade global warming is real and that we’d better install the mercury lights made by Philipps and use electricity made by GE wind generators, and invest in green commodities packaged by Al Gore.

As the following graphic shows, it was a warm year globally. Careful though, some of them red dots are exaggerated in my view, as we know there are lots of instrumental issues and dubious computational methods involved (see  here). 

The first 6 months of 2010 were warm, due to El Nino.

And the media are still going wild with all the hype about heat waves. Is the globe really hot everywhere now?
And will it remain hot for the rest of the year? The answer is NO!  

The next chart shows the temperatures for the period July 4-11. Here, as Steve Goddard shows at WUWT here, 5% more pixels were cool than warm. The globe has definitely cooled over the last weeks, as it enters a La Nina phase. 

Media have ignored the cold spots of early July.

The first six months were dominated by the recently fizzled out El Nino. Data now show we’ve entered a La Nina phase (see next chart), and models show with high certainty that we are now headed for a good cooling off, which means headlines of a record-setting 2010 were premature. Here’s the ENSO model forecasts for the next 6 months: 

ENSO models predict a strong La Nina.

Now let’s look at the southern hemisphere. The following 3 graphics show the forecast for the week ahead, July 17 – 24. Do you see any heat waves in South America? I wonder if we’ll get any press releases on the extreme cold gripping South America? And have we heard anything about Antarctic sea ice almost reaching a record high? 

Surface temp anomalies for July 17 -24

And here’s the outlook for Africa, also more on the cool side: 

Africa outlook July 17 - 24.

Australia has reported record cold temps. What’s ahead for Australia in the days ahead? No heat-waves there either. 

Australia will stay on the cool side.

Okay, maybe I’m cherry picking. What’s ahead for the globe for the next 6 months or so? Here’s the global outlook according to NOAA: 

Global seasonal E2 forecast.

To me it looks like a lot of cooling off going on. Again, all this hype about 2010 being the hottest is about to get doused with cold water. It was premature. I suspect this was known at NOAA, and so they rushed out their overheated press releases while they could. Don’t expect to see any more for quite some time. These headlines and press releases were to help Harry Reid (God forbid he gets his crap and trade bill through at the end of the month). 

Joe Bastardi goes into the forecast at his European website here.  Here are some things he says: 

The coming drop of global temperatures over the next year, to levels not seen since the 1990s, should put to an end to the AGW argument for good except for the most radical elements. 

However, also coming is major drop of .5 to .7C in the global temps which will take us below normal for a time. 

And Joe adds: 

In addition, the reason for the drop will easily be linked with the cooling of the Pacific, which will remain in its cool stage for the next 30 years. Once the Atlantic, still warm, goes into its cool stage in 10-15 years, global temps will fall even further, back to where they were in the 1970s. 

How cold was it in the 1970s? The link that follows is a clip that will tell you.  
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nprY2jSI0Ds&feature=related 

It even includes Stephen Schneider as a young whippersnapper acknowledging the coming ice age, and displaying his complete ignorance of global commerce, thinking every country is isolated from each other like North Korea.

There you have it. We’ll find out soon enough who’s right, and who’s full of it.

The Incredibly, Rapidly Disappearing Heat

NASA has released its picture of the week, which is a graphic of global land temperature anomalies for the period July 4-11. Click here for details. What jump outs at me is the number of blue areas that have suddenly popped up on the continents. Where did they all come from? 

Cold waves are outnumbering the heat waves.

We keep hearing about the NOAA’s record hot first half of 2010. and seeing these maps covered with all them red dots all them, like this one here for June (sure looks hot, doesn’t it?): 

Temperature anomalies for June 2010.

Surely one can see the differences. In some cases they are very dramatic. Compare: 

1. Mexico / western North America
2. Greenland
3. Central and Saharan Africa
4. Almost all of Asia
5. Australia 

Can the planet really cool that quickly? 

You know what I think? I think the NOAA is producing a bunch of crap.

Curiously, the references cited by NASA above all refer to “scorching heatwaves” and “hotspots”. No mention of the cool or cold spots that seem to have the upper hand on the continents.

UPDATE: For more detail and light on this subject, Steve Goddard at WUWT has written up a great analysis, see: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/07/16/co2-optical-illusion/#comment-432509

Joe Bastardi: Coming Cooling Will Be Coldest Since Early 90s

Joe predicts coldest cooling since early 90s.

Joe Bastardi’s latest video here says the coming La Nina-related cooling will be the coldest since the Pinatubo cooling in the early 1990s.

Video: Joe Bastardi predicts coldest cooling since Pinatubo.

He says:

It doesn’t take a brain surgeon to figure that out.

So what could possibly cause that kind of cooling? Not a volcano, not CO2 greenhouse gases, not aerosols…
Joe just calls it weather (that happens to be well below what the climate models predicted). My bet is that it has something to do with solar cycles.

And looking at the latest Unisys SSTs, looks like we’re well on our way to a drastic drop in temperatures. http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html

German FOCUS Magazine: Warm Times Will Soon Be Over!

The prominent German online news magazine  FOCUS  reports that 2010 may set a new NASA high temperature record. The cause of the recent warmth is El Nino. But FOCUS then throws ice-cold water on any warmist dream of an overheating planet, at least for the next few years, and writes that scientists believe: “Womöglich aber sind die warmen Zeiten für unseren Globus bald vorüber”.

In English:

Quite possibly, the warm times for the planet will soon be over.

The FOCUS report looks at three factors, which I present in 3 parts.

Part 1: La Nina

FOCUS first zeroes in on La Nina, and quotes AccuWeather meteorologist Joe Bastardi:

There are wild cards in the climate system that have changed the previous climate events. Now we’ve got a weak solar cycle and the prospect of increased volcanic activity. Together with a La Nina, it all could be a troublesome triple whammy.

FOCUS also quotes Joe D´Aleo of TV Weather Channel:

We’ll have La Nina conditions before the summer is over, and it will intensify further through the fall and winter. Thus we’ll have cooler temperatures for the next couple of years.

Part 2: Solar Activity

The next big factor is the sun, which has worried a number of scientists over the last couple of years. It refuses to start-up with a new cycle. 2008 had 266 spotless days and 2009 had 261.

FOCUS writes:

Now some scientists fear the solar slumber could herald in a new Little Ice Age. This period, which extended from the 15th to the 19th century, was characterised by bitter cold winters and cool, wet summers which left grains and crops rotting in the fields.

FOCUS magazine then acknowledges the Maunder and Dalton Minimums, thus indirectly refuting Mann’s version of climate history. The German media is waking up!

FOCUS then quotes Joe D’Aleo:

If the number of spots does not climb over 40 or 50 during the next maximum, which would mean a low level of solar energy, then we have to reckon with much lower temperatures in the coming years.

Part 3: Volcanoes

Volcanoes in Iceland are coming alive. So far the ash clouds have been too small to have any effects on the climate. The real risk, however, is that it may be a foreboding of something much worse to come – the eruption of the mighty neighbouring Katla volcano. Katla has a far more immense chamber of magma. It erupts on average every 70 years and in tandem with Eyjafjalla. The last Katla eruption was in 1918, thus making an eruption overdue.

According to Joe Bastardi:

Katla could be a game-changer. If it erupts and throws ash and sulfur particles into the stratosphere, then the global temperature will plummet.

The triple whammy of La Nina, low solar activity and increased volcanic activity all acting together would certainly put global warming on the back burner for a while. But some scientists, like Prof. Mojib Latif of the University of Kiel, insist that warming will resume once the cooling factors fade off, and that global temperature increases of 5°C by the end of the century cannot be excluded.

In the meantime, get ready for cooling.

Another Russian Scientist: Arctic Is Cooling

Yet another Russian scientist believes the Arctic is set for cooling and thus increasing sea ice, this reported in the German version of the Russian online news RIA NOVOSTI (see links below). Scientist Vladimir Sokolov says:

The warming that occurred in the Arctic has swung back to cooling and sea ice that melted over the past years is recovering.

http://de.rian.ru/science/20100427/126088756.html, The English version is here: http://en.rian.ru/russia/20100427/158771845.html

Arctic sea ice reached a historic minimum in 2007 when it shrank to 4.28 million sq km. But the trend now appears to have reversed. According to the weather observation administration Roshydromet, it has grown by a fifth reaching 5.2 million square km in 2009, Sokolov said at the Petersburg Research Insttitute for the Arctic and Antarctic on Tuesday.

Sokolov calls predictions of continued shrinking Arctic ice “incorrect”.

He says the cooling is due to the polar night and the associated missing sunlight, and this as a result will lead to ice formation. Some scientists are warning that politicians and corporations who promise lucrative oil and gas projects in the Arctic may have made dramatic miscalculations. The researchers say that no warming will take place, instead cooling will impact the earth over the next decades.

Russian Scientist: Expect Cooling – Pols Sitting On The Wrong Horse

http://de.rian.ru/science/20100423/126040500.html

In the German edition of Ria Novosti, Russian scientist Oleg Pokrovsky of the Main Geophysical Observatory says the world should expect cooling – and not warming – and that this will interfere with Russia’s plans to exploit the Arctic’s rich resources. The climate has been cooling since 1998.

At a climate research conference for the Arctic and Antarctic in St. Petersburg, Friday, Pokrovsky said the Earth’s temperature fluctuates in 60-year cycles.

There isn’t going to be an ice age, but temperatures will drop to levels last seen in the 1950s and 1960s.

Pokrovsky adds:

Right now all components of the climate system are entering a negative phase.  The cooling will reach it’s peak in 15 years. Politicians who have geared up for warming are sitting on the wrong horse.

The Northeast Passage will freeze over and will be passable only with icebreakers.

Pokrovsky also claims that the IPCC, which has prophesized global warming, has ignored many factors. He also noted that most American weather stations are located in cities where temperatures are always higher.

We don’t know everything that’s happening. The climate system is very complex and the IPCC is not the final truth on the matter.

UPDATE,  4/26/2010: Here’s the RIA NOVOSTI English version: http://en.rian.ru/Environment/20100423/158714403.html

UPDATE 2: Dr Pokrovsky replies here: https://pgosselin.wordpress.com/2010/04/27/dr-pokrovsky-replies/