Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ category

We Have A New Location!

August 12, 2010

From now on visit us at:

http://notrickszone.com/

Hope to see you there!

Moving To A New Domain!

August 12, 2010

Dear Readers,

Now is the time to move to a new domain with WordPress. Our new site is:

http://notrickszone.com/

This is where we will continue blogging. This old site here will remain, but will not be used for new posts.

Moving to a new domain is a lot of work, and so blogging over the next few days will be slow. Fortunately I have a good mate who has taken me through this important step.

New new domain will enable many new features and allow readers to easily subscribe using social networks like Facebook, Twitter, RSS and so on. Overall it means better service for all of you.

Hope to see you at our new site!

Bitter Cold Winter Ahead – Get Your Parkas Ready

August 9, 2010

By bitter, I mean much colder than normal. This is a summary of what the experts are saying and what the data are showing.

We just got a strong El Nino behind us and now a La Nina is forming in the Pacific and is barreling ahead in full development, see the chart below. It’s got the potential to be a big one, meaning global temperatures will go into a nosedive in the months ahead.

Joe Bastardi thinks temperatures will reach levels we saw back when Pinatubo blew its top, and maybe lower.

The next chart shows the NWS/NCEP forecast for the fall and winter. Strangely, the German weather services here are predicting a 60% chance the coming winter in Germany will be warmer than normal – which doesn’t agree with what NWS service is forecasting. Europe is projected to be about normal. Note: As Joe Bastardi’s latest video shows, regional forecasts coming out of NOAA are sometimes very very wrong!

Take a look at the Arctic in the right side panels above, i.e. December to April. We’re talking deep freeze. That’s quite a difference from the constant red bloodbath we’re used to seeing from GISS and NOAA. The months ahead are going to be really tough for those trying to avoid the Al Gore effect.

Average global temps to a great extent will depend on the depth of the La Nina. Look at the following graph and compare this La Nina with the last one back in 2007-08. What do you see? Where were we at this time in 07? Looks to me right around zero. This time around we’re already 1°C below that. Also look at the overall slope in this year’s plummet.

This La Nina will seriously depress global temps in the months ahead, thus throwing ice water on the NCDC’s fantasy of the hottest year ever. It’ll be interesting watching them try to pull it off. They need it for Cancun.

The poles are also indicating lower temperatures. No death spiral in the Arctic. Zed’s dead, baby. The DMI chart already shows freezing at 80°+N latitude. But it has ticked up a bit. No matter it was the coldest melt season in that area on record – in the “hottest year ever”. Go figure!

The Arctic will not set a new record low sea ice minimum this year, as many were hoping, panting and drooling for. It isn’t even going to set the second lowest.  A third lowest is still in the works, though the odds are tightening. Total sea ice of the north and south poles is smack normal – and again, this in the “hottest year” on record.

Okay, a winter’s forecast is not climate – many will crow. Yes, but weren’t we told that such winters were a thing of the past? To the contrary, more and more we’re hearing they may very well be a thing of the future.

Folks, all these nice graphs are available at my Climatic Indicators side bar on my homepage. Take a look and you be the judge.

A White Washer

August 1, 2010

Taking it easy today. Thought this was kind of funny. I’m surprised the thing ran as long as it did. See man throw brick in the machine when on high-spin.

Arctic Sea Ice Level Projections Adjusted Upwards

July 30, 2010

The July Arctic sea ice outlook for September is out. Click here.

Here’s a graphic of the prediction made by 16 different institutes this month, now that they are all 30 days wiser.

Now compare this to the projections made 30 days ago, late June.

Then again, some are incapable of learning anything. Anyway, at least five now concede that we may not even reach last year’s low. Strangely, after July’s slow melt, some have grown even more pessimistic.

Then again, optimism has never been a trait one finds in climate “science”. Who do you think will grab the headlines?

Duisburg Love Parade Disaster: Sceptics’ Warnings Were Dismissed

July 25, 2010

19 dead and up to 400 injured, many seriously.

These are the latest gruesome numbers from yesterday’s Duisburg Love Parade, crowd-control disaster. It’s a classic case of what can go wrong when warnings are ignored or played down. City officials were warned that the location was seriously inadequate, but nobody wanted to be a party-pooper.

Germany’s techno-music Love Parade first started in 1989. Most have been held in Berlin, until the city got tired of the chaos and filth they left behind, and the event had lost money anyway.

Yet, everybody hates to see a good party end, and so other places were sought to host the million-plus visitor event. This year’s choice proved to be a disaster.

The catastrophe occurred at a tunnel under a street that served as the main entrance to the event. The following video vividly shows the catastrophe in motion. Especially interesting is the 0:31 mark of the clip. there you see the fully packed ramp leading down to the tunnel.

LOVE PARADE DISASTER VIDEO

Just the shear physics of the situation alone are staggering.

If you estimate 100,000 people on that sloped ramp, each with an average weight of 70 kg, you have a total weight of 7000 tons trying to move forward. If the ramp has a slope of 3°, then sine 3° times 7000 tones yields a gravity force vector of 366 tons pressing down against the wall. Not a good place to be. Granted that’s just a real rough calculation, but it gives you an idea.

A sure sign that the old rail yard location, where the event took place, was not going to work was its relatively small size. It had an area of 2.2 million square feet, meaning that the place was going to be overly packed with just half a million people. Organisers expected 1 million, 1.4 million showed up. 1.5 sq ft per person. Experts say the area was suitable for a maximum of only 300,000.

Throw in youth, alcohol and drugs and you have all the ingredients for a crowd control disaster.

The police had warned city officials that the risks were too high and had advised against approving the event. But reports say no top city official wanted to be the party-pooper. The Love Parade got the green light.

Now, after the catastrophe, with the nation and continent in shock, officials are scrambling and the finger-pointing has begun. According to German newspaper Bild:

Duisburg mayor Adolf Sauerland defended the safety concept of the Love Parade against criticism.

In his view the reasons for the tragedy were not due to a poor safety concept, but rather very likely had more to do with individual weak points.

Tell that to the prosecuting attorneys Herr Burgermeister.

The State’s Attorney has announced that an investigation for negligent homicide will be conducted, and all city and official documents relating to permitting and organisation of the event have been confiscated by police.

The Love Parade organisation has announced today that there will not be any more Love Parades in the future.

UPDATE – USEFUL LINKS:
http://www.thelocal.de/national/20100726-28737.html
http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,708462,00.html

Wanted: Readers As Guest Writers!

July 15, 2010

Help the sceptic troops!

Readers often provide good leads and write interesting comments. I’m sure some out there have interesting things to write.

If you’re a reader at this blog and would like to post something here as a guest writer, then please send it in to me by e-mail. If it’s interesting enough I’ll post it here, with you as the guest writer. If English is not your mother language, but can write it to some comprehensive degree, send it in and I’ll clean it up for you.

I’m particlularly interested in climate/weather stories from other countries. Stories that have to do with green energy policies are welcome too.

Some guidelines:
1. The stories should be kept to less than 500 words.
2. Stories should be original, and not repeat something posted at another climate blog.
3. It has to be referenced – provide links to the sources.
4. Be careful with photos! Use only photos that are permitted to be used,  i.e. press release photos, Wiki, or your own.
5. You’ll have to provide your full name as an author.
6. Don’t take it personally if I decide not to post it. A number of my own drafts never see the light of day.

So who’s going to be the first guest writer here?
Hope to hear from you!