Archive for the ‘Arctic’ category

Kola Temperature Reconstruction Shows Solar Correlation – Refutes The Hockey Stick

August 7, 2010

Last week I wrote about a Russian-German temperature reconstruction from 1600 to 2000 derived from tree rings from the Kola Peninsula in northwest Russia . The paper appeared in the journal Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research, Vol. 41, No. 4, 2009, pp. 460–468, by Kononov, Friedrich and Boettger. 

In response, German media outlets all hollered “RAPIDLY RISING ARCTIC TEMPERATURES!”, focussing solely on one statement that temperatures have been rising since 1990. 

It’s a classic example of how a scientific study comes up with Result A, but the public ends up understanding Result Z, all thanks to sloppy and incompetent communication that exists between the two. 

The press release here  provides the following Kola temperature reconstruction graph for summertime temperatures:

Kola Peninsula tree-ring temperature reconstruction. Source: Stephan Boehme/UFZ

Here it’s plain to see that the temperature reconstruction shows that Arctic temperatures in the Kola Peninsula have been rising since about 1670. This corresponds exceptionally well with Loehle’s 2007 reconstruction using 18 non-tree-ring proxies for the last 2000 years shown as follows: 


Both graphics show the Little Ice Age from 1650 to 1750, at which point a warming event ensues. Then it was generally flat from 1750 to about 1920, and then followed by another rise that took place until 1950. Then Kola tree-ring proxies show a cooling up to 1990. Since 1990 warming has occurred again, but it’s  a warming that is completely within the natural range of variation. 

The Kola reconstruction (1) agreed with an earlier reconstruction (2) done in the area, see map below.  What’s more, the Kola reconstruction (1) was compared with tree-ring reconstructions from other Arctic regions: Swedish Lapland (3), Yamal (4), and Taimyr (5).

Proxy locations used for Kola comparison. Source: Journal Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research, Vol. 41, No. 4, 2009, pp. 460–468

The result of the comparison: 

The reconstructed summer temperatures of the last four centuries from Lapland and the Kola and Taimyr Peninsulas are similar in that all three data series display a temperature peak in the middle of the twentieth century, followed by a cooling of one or two degrees. 

Only the Yamal reconstruction differed completely, resembling the shape of a hockey stick with the blade beginning at 1900. The hockey stick is becoming an artefact of activism.

Except for the Yamal reconstruction, all tree-ring and non-tree ring reconstructions appear to agree, and so indicate no correlation between temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration.

So what could be driving temperatures then? The authors compared the tree-ring based reconstructions with historical records of sunspots (Lean et al, 1995; Lean, 2000), and say: 

We found that over the whole investigated period fluctuations of summer air temperature reconstructed for the Khibiny Mountains in the central part of the Kola Peninsula have a good consistency (r >0.50) with changes of solar radiation (Fig. 10), especially for the low-frequency signal. 

In the paper’s conclusion we read: 

The broad similarity between this temperature construction and solar radiation indicates that solar activity is an important driver of centennial to multi-decadal trends in summer temperatures of the Kola Peninsula. 

So why did all media reports holler “RAPID TEMPERATURE INCREASE IN THE ARCTIC”. Call it complete communication incompetence by the media players between science and the public.

The Kola reconstructions show no link to atmospheric CO2 concentrations. It all started with a solid scientific paper, and but then was distorted (purposely?) by a vague press release that culminated in alarmist media headlines. 

Let’s call that press release incompetence-gate.

Arctic Sea Ice Melt This July Slowest On Record – “Death Spiral” Is Dead

July 31, 2010

Today I’m coming out a day early and declaring July 2010 as the slowest melting July since the AMSR-E satellite record has been kept. The once ballyhooed “death spiral” is dead.

Reminds me of that line in Tarantino’s cult film Pulp Fiction:

“Who’s Zed?”

“Zed? Zed is dead.”

At the end of June I recall seeing lots of headlines in the newspapers about a record Arctic sea ice melt occurring. Words like “alarming” and “unprecedented” were used liberally. The reports were splashed with pictures of polar bears for added effect.

One month later the media are completely silent. As the following graphic shows, this July’s Arctic sea ice melt was the slowest since this dataset has been kept.  Click Here.

Here are the numbers for the amount of July-melt in million square kilometers:
Year      6/30 to 7/30
2003           2.25
2004           2.08
2005           2.52
2006           2.11
2007           3.00
2008           2.45
2009           2.81
2010          1.85

It was the first time that July failed to reach 2 million sq. km. Now 2010 is on track to reach last year’s low. So far the Arctic has been cold this summer, one of the coldest summers north of 80°N on record, Click Here.

What’s the forecast?

Meteorologist Joe Bastardi projects a significant Arctic sea ice recovery in the couple of years ahead, flying in the face of predictions made by climate “scientists”. Bastardi’s claim is in line with the latest NOAA seasonal forecasts.

La Nina is strengthening and global temps, dare I say, are beginning a death-spiral of their own.

New German/Russian Temperature Reconstruction Shows No Correlation With CO2

July 30, 2010

A new temperature reconstruction carried out by a team of German/Russian scientists has yielded interesting results. It finds no correlation over the last 400 years between atmospheric CO2 and the temperature in the Arctic regions studied.


New Laws Of Physics: More Heat Equals More Ice! Watch Joe Bastardi’s Latest Video

July 23, 2010

Updated 23 July 2010, 18:54 MET.

Calamitologist Stefan Rahmstorf once defended his alarmist sea level rise scenarios by saying:

I can’t help it. It’s simply the laws of physics.

The question is: Whose physics?
No science has rewritten the laws of physics like climate science. In climate science, it works like this:

1. Develop a model that shows heating in the future.
2. Then compare the model projections with reality. If there’s a discrepancy:
3. Don’t change the models, instead go and change the measured data so that they agree with the models.

One way to do this is to go back and adjust the historical data, like GISS has done – GISS REWRITES HISTORY!

Another way is to modify your measurement methods and systems so that they put out only data that agree with the models. This involves closing down certain weather stations and then using data from urban-heat-island stations for filling in. GISS has done that too.


You may be able to fool the public this way, but you can’t fool the ice.

Joe Bastardi reports in his latest clip Ice Ice Baby how the Arctic ice simply refuses to melt, although we are told it’s getting warmer and warmer and warmer. Indeed look at total sea ice, north and south pole, here.

There we see a sea ice anomaly of ZERO! Global sea ice is right at normal.
Indeed the ice has been recovering over the last three years – even though we are told that it is getting hotter. This can mean only one thing. When it gets warmer, you get more ice.

We can’t help it, it’s simply the laws of climate physics.

NOAA Models Predict Big Arctic Deep Freeze

July 22, 2010

Scientists often say that if you want to see the climate change signal, then look at the poles, especially the Arctic. How often have we seen the following red-coloured graphic, or similar, and thought: Oh my God!

Typical Arctic meltdown graphic used to scare the bejesus out of people.

Well don’t panic. Even with all the “hottest-ever-first-6 months” in 2010 belly-aching, temperatures are about to take a dive. I’m not talking about because of fall and winter are approaching, I’m talking temperature anomalies over the winter. They are projected to be far below normal.

The NOAA models predict a major cooling for the Arctic this coming winter. Indeed they show a significant cooling globally. These models have been converging on an Arctic deep freeze for a few weeks now. Already the mercury north of 80° latitude has taken a dip back down to the freezing point, see DMI chart:

Upper Arctic temperatures have dipped.

Now lets look at the NOAA Arctic seasonal forecast for the period Aug/Sep/Oct 2010:

Global surface temperatures for Aug/Sep/Oct 2010

In the above chart, you can see that the Arctic above Scandinavia, Russia, Siberia has cooled to a slight negative anomaly. The Canadian Arctic is still on the warm side. But almost everything above the 80°N line is blue, meaning colder than normal.

Now take a look at the next NOAA graphic which shows the global temperature anomalies for the period Jan/Feb/Mar 2011 – the dead of winter (entire NOAA graphic series here):

Brrrrr! Arctic temps 2°C below normal in Jan/Feb/Mar 2011

Look at all the deep blue up in the Arctic indicating well below normal temperatures! Some readers may say: “Well, it’s only 1 or 2°C below normal, what’s the big deal?”  It is a big deal. Today warmists are screeching about global temperature anomalies of +0.5°C.  So 2.0°C in the Arctic is huge. The Pacific and the Antarctic coast are also frigid.

Keep in mind this this post was written just by looking at the leading Climatic Indicators I have listed on my homepage. Anyone can go there and take a look at the charts. The data are there, take a look at them yourself and draw your own conclusions. Do your own thinking.

How long will the cold last? That depends on the developing La Nina. Again the big climate institutes point to a good-sized La Nina.

La Nina in the forecast

So, to summarise, expect Arctic sea ice to get pretty low this year, and to hear lots of headlines about it, but then watch the ice recover next year. Joe Bastardi thinks it could reach near record highs. This of course depends on how reliable the NOAA seasonal forecasts are.

Slowest July Arctic Melt Ever

July 16, 2010

UPDATE 19 July: Steve Goddard has followed this post with a supplement, and provides more detailed information.
WUWT following up on my posts a day or two later seems to be becoming a trend over there.

July's melt rate is at an all time low!

The NOAA is taking the liberty of declaring 2010 the hottest ever, even though it’s only July! So what’s all the hurry? Well, you have to get them scary global-hotting headlines out while you can, and any way you can. When you’re desperate – you’re desperate. 

They’ve seen their own forecasts for the rest of the year, and so they know it’s their last chance. Just check the leading climatic indicators on my homepage and you’ll see why. 

Now on Arctic sea ice, allow me to use the same NOAA “scientific” method and declare that the Arctic has experienced the slowest July ice melt ever! (Well, at least  so far). 

Look at the ice melts from June 30 – July 15 for the following years, taken from AMSR-E

                 Sea ice melt               
Year      6/30 to 7/15                Daily rate
2002     1.126 million sq km     75,000 sq km / day
2003     1.014                                  67,000
2004     1.019                                  68,000
2005     1.152                                  77,000
2006     1.210                                  80,000
2007     1.742                               116,000
2008     1.216                                   81,000
2009     1.413                                   94,000
2010    0.807                                54,000 

Never has ice melted so slowly in mid summer as it has this year. Indeed sea ice melt in July 2010 is less than half the melt rate in 2007. It’s far below anything we’ve seen on record. Would the NOAA already call it a record low melt for the month? 

And as Lubos Motl pointed out 3 days ago here, total global sea ice is above normal. Also see here. Indeed sea ice is rebounding, and surprisingly just at a time when  it’s supposively the “hottest ever”.  Someone is wrong, obviously. 

Do you think anyone in the media is going to run this story?

Dramatic Arctic Sea Ice Melt – NSIDC Cherrypicks

July 10, 2010

My local newspaper Osnabruecker Zeitung (OZ) has an online story here about the dramatic ARCTIC sea ice melting in June. This is typical of German media climate reporting. The introduction reads:

Arctic sea ice last month melted faster than in any June since measurements have been taken, since 1979. 88,000 square kilometers of white area disappeared daily, reports the American NSIDC in Boulder.

The OZ peppers the story with dramatic details like:

Also the extent of northern ice this June reached a record low average of 10.87 million sq km. According to the NSIDC, this ice area is 190,000 sq km below the previous June record set in 2006.

The air temperature is very high, and the ice continues to melt very rapidly.

The OZ then brings in the WWF as experts and polar bears for emotion to round out the propoganda effect.

So let’s stop right here. This is why it’s so important to keep an eye on the 11 Climatic Indicators which I have provided on the right side of my homepage. They allow a sure way to quickly debunk all media climate propaganda. The 11 Climatic Indicators are links to updated charts and graphs that treehuggers and alarmists don’t want you to see.

Have Arctic temps really been very high lately? Judge for yourself, see below, or click here:

Arctic temps

Clearly the chart shows that since the start of June temperatures in the Arctic over 80°N latitude have not been “very high”. Most of the melting ice was ice that had formed in the cold late spring at lower latitudes.

What about the claim that Arctic ice is melting rapidly now. Again, look at the chart under my 11 Climatic Indicators as follows or, click here (Sea Ice Arctic IJIS).

Arctic Sea Ice

If you look closely you’ll observe a few things: 1) There was a record high ice extent in April, 2) the ice indeed melted rapidly in May and June, but 3) the melting rate has slowed down considerably over the last 10 days, averaging only 59,000 sq km – something the media forgets to mention.

The media also forgot to mention that total global sea ice is dead-on normal, see next chart. They completely ignore Antarctica at the South Pole. Here’s where total sea ice stands now. It’s actually been increasing over the last few years.

Total sea ice, north and south poles

Now let’s take a look at what the sea ice in Antarctica alone is doing, see below or click here. Indeed Antarctic sea ice is near a record high!

Antarctic sea ice anomaly. Sea ice extent is far above average and trending upwards.

Moreover, look at the trend (blue line which I eyeballed in) over the last 25 years or so. Have we heard any reports about that? Perhaps the journalists at the OZ ought to take a closer look.

Research Institutes Predict Arctic Sea Ice To Remain Steady in 2010

June 23, 2010

The June SEARCH report of September sea ice outlook here shows the predictions of 16 research institutes for 2010:

SEARCH September sea ice outlook: June report

According to the report:

 A quick calculation (leaving out the outliers of 3.2 million in 2009 and 1.0 million in 2010) shows an average prediction of 4.72 in June 2009, and 5.05 million this year.

On average their predictions for 2010 are 300,000 km² more than last year’s average prediction. This is probably due to the embarassment they had to endure last year, when ice melt was far less than all the institutes had predicted. Last year sea ice area bottomed out at 5.4 million km², see below:


As you can see from the above chart, they all fell short. This year they probably thought twice about making headline-grabbing claims like they did last year.

Alfred Wegener Institute: 80% Probability Arctic Ice Will Bottom Out Between 4.7 and 5.7 Million Km²

June 23, 2010

We recall last year how projections of new lows in Arctic sea ice extents were boldly made, and eagerly publicised by the catastrophe-obsessed  media. It made for good headlines, but they were all wrong. See here June Outlook Report.


This year Germany’s Alfred Wegener Institute AWI here and the KlimaCampus of the University of  Hamburg are taking another shot at it, along with a dozen or so other fortune tellers. The AWI press release states:

The projection of the KlimaCampus of the University of Hamburg is 4.7 million sq km, which is more negative than the 5.2 million sq km made by the AWI scientists. Yet both research centres do not exclude a record low of 4.3 million set in 2007 being reached.

Decisive factors like ice thickness and how the rest of the summer develops are unknown and do not allow for accurate projections. Yet the AWI is projecting a sea level that is almost a million sq km over 2007. They know that the ice in the central Arctic is thick, but probably don’t want to say it publicly. Indeed, most of the sea ice fortune tellers are projecting 2010 to finish higher than 2008.

Both teams used different methods for their projections. Prof. Rüdiger Gerdes and his team at the AWI worked out a model together with the scientific companies OASys and FastOpt that uses oceanic drift buoys and satellite data for measuring the movement of ice. The projection will be revised each month during the summer. Dr. Gerdes says:

Currently we calculate with 80% probability that the sea ice extent will be between 4.7 million and 5.7 million sq km in September. The projections will become more precise as summer progresses.

Meanwhile the KlimaCampus-Team of Prof. Lars Kaleschke takes satellite photos of the Arctic sea ice for each day of 2010 and compares them to the same day of each year from 2003 to 2009.

The number and size of the ice-free areas are indicators for subsequent ice developments. These dark spots store more solar energy in early summer and thus enhance ice melt during the polar summer, as the sun does not disappear until September.

NOAA’s Overland Warns of Cold Snowy Winters !!

June 15, 2010

This is global warming, says the NOAA

Remember all those reports about how snow in the wintertime would be so seldom that it would be exciting, permafrost would melt, and palm trees possibly spreading to northern Europe? This all due to AGW. Well, according to the prominent online Sueddeutsche Zeitung (South German News), there’s been some, errr, adjustments to climate models, or something. Forget all them warming scenarios. The Suddeutsche Zeitung reports today the following:

Climate change could lead to especially cold winters to precisely large industrial nations in Europe, North America and Asia. The cause of all this is the irreversible disappearance of Arctic ice, says James Overland of the American weather adminstration NOAA.

and Overland is quoted as saying:

Cold and snowy winters will become more the rule than the exception.

Overland made these comments last Friday at a conference at the end of the International Polar Year in Oslo. Last winter was just a taste of what could possibly happen in Europe and in the USA.

Overland says that a warmer Arctic polar region leads to the development of stable cold highs in the north, which in turn pump cold Arctic air down to the middle latitudes, which include Germany, Great Britain and France.

Normally European countries are supplied with warmer, more moist Atlantic air that keeps winters on the mild side. But in the future, cold will predominate.

So take note all you tree-hugging Europeans: global warming means cold harsh winters. Don’t forget we told you so! It all fits with catastrophic AGW. Yes, it sounds crazy, but that’s what it is. So If some wacked out denialist brings up cold winters as an argument to refute AGW, then just tell them that to the contrary, it just proves AGW!

One Süddeutsche Zeitung reader Reinhard Boesch reacts, like many others, as follows:

I’ve been reading for 20 years now in the science section of your paper about the climate catastrophe, the greatest catastrophe in human history. This was fully supported by Graßl, Schellnhuber and Rahmstorf, with your editors prophesising red-hot summers, rainy winters and the end of skiing below elevations of 1500m. The fundamental science underpinning these claims was beyond doubt (settled) and anyone who dared to challenge the science was first labelled as a climate sceptic, then as a denier, and finally marginalised as a flatearther. But now it’s going to get colder because it’s getting warmer. Perhaps we should handle science reports like stock reports – ignore them and just take them as they come.