Will 2010 Stay Hot? And Joe Bastardi: Return To 1970s Cold

With all the talk about heat waves and alleged record high global temps, one could be led to think that manmade global warming is real and that we’d better install the mercury lights made by Philipps and use electricity made by GE wind generators, and invest in green commodities packaged by Al Gore.

As the following graphic shows, it was a warm year globally. Careful though, some of them red dots are exaggerated in my view, as we know there are lots of instrumental issues and dubious computational methods involved (see  here)

The first 6 months of 2010 were warm, due to El Nino.

And the media are still going wild with all the hype about heat waves. Is the globe really hot everywhere now?
And will it remain hot for the rest of the year? The answer is NO!  

The next chart shows the temperatures for the period July 4-11. Here, as Steve Goddard shows at WUWT here, 5% more pixels were cool than warm. The globe has definitely cooled over the last weeks, as it enters a La Nina phase. 

Media have ignored the cold spots of early July.

The first six months were dominated by the recently fizzled out El Nino. Data now show we’ve entered a La Nina phase (see next chart), and models show with high certainty that we are now headed for a good cooling off, which means headlines of a record-setting 2010 were premature. Here’s the ENSO model forecasts for the next 6 months: 

ENSO models predict a strong La Nina.

Now let’s look at the southern hemisphere. The following 3 graphics show the forecast for the week ahead, July 17 – 24. Do you see any heat waves in South America? I wonder if we’ll get any press releases on the extreme cold gripping South America? And have we heard anything about Antarctic sea ice almost reaching a record high? 

Surface temp anomalies for July 17 -24

And here’s the outlook for Africa, also more on the cool side: 

Africa outlook July 17 - 24.

Australia has reported record cold temps. What’s ahead for Australia in the days ahead? No heat-waves there either. 

Australia will stay on the cool side.

Okay, maybe I’m cherry picking. What’s ahead for the globe for the next 6 months or so? Here’s the global outlook according to NOAA: 

Global seasonal E2 forecast.

To me it looks like a lot of cooling off going on. Again, all this hype about 2010 being the hottest is about to get doused with cold water. It was premature. I suspect this was known at NOAA, and so they rushed out their overheated press releases while they could. Don’t expect to see any more for quite some time. These headlines and press releases were to help Harry Reid (God forbid he gets his crap and trade bill through at the end of the month). 

Joe Bastardi goes into the forecast at his European website here.  Here are some things he says: 

The coming drop of global temperatures over the next year, to levels not seen since the 1990s, should put to an end to the AGW argument for good except for the most radical elements. 

However, also coming is major drop of .5 to .7C in the global temps which will take us below normal for a time. 

And Joe adds: 

In addition, the reason for the drop will easily be linked with the cooling of the Pacific, which will remain in its cool stage for the next 30 years. Once the Atlantic, still warm, goes into its cool stage in 10-15 years, global temps will fall even further, back to where they were in the 1970s

How cold was it in the 1970s? The link that follows is a clip that will tell you.  

It even includes Stephen Schneider as a young whippersnapper acknowledging the coming ice age, and displaying his complete ignorance of global commerce, thinking every country is isolated from each other like North Korea.

There you have it. We’ll find out soon enough who’s right, and who’s full of it.

Explore posts in the same categories: Cooling

7 Comments on “Will 2010 Stay Hot? And Joe Bastardi: Return To 1970s Cold”

  1. Verity Jones Says:

    That Youtube link with Stephen Schneider is an absolute classic. Thanks for finding it. It is amazing to think it is only thirty odd years ago. Unfortunately I remember it well – the ice age scare and cold winters (in the UK).
    Reply: You’re welcome – I found the Schneider part quite amusing too. -PG

  2. Dave N Says:

    Unfortunately, die-hard alarmists will bleat that the coming cold is a “blip” on CAGW, and that we should prepare for the climate to “strike back”. Mark my words.

  3. Mike from Canmore Says:

    The question will be if the lame duck Congress will squeeze Crap and Trap through in the Nov – Feb time frame.
    Good chance the House will go Republican and the Senate will at least move close to going Republican. The next question is whether or not the new GOP will be RINOs or true fiscal conservatives.

    If we can manage to hold off Crap and Trap off until Feb, more than likely it will go the way of the dodo bird. Bastardi’s usually right so look mother nature should help us out.

    My first time to your site. Looks good.

    Reply: Thanks for popping in! -PG

  4. sdcougar Says:

    Great quote there from a younger, wiser Stephen Schneider:

    “We can’t predict with any certainty what’s happening to our own climatic future. How can we come along and intervene then in that ignorance? …The cure could be worse than the disease.”

  5. slimething Says:

    In the last picture, are the initial conditions (upper right corner) of 10 days used to establish the baseline to compare anomalies of the forecast or are the anomalies based on NOAA 30 year baseline?

    The latest forecast looks quite a bit different.

  6. orpilot Says:

    I guess we did find out who’s right, and “who’s full of it”, didn’t we? 2010 ties 2005 for the warmest on record.

  7. David Appell Says:

    So, GISS found 2010 to be the warmest year ever, and both NOAA and UAH find it tied for the warmest year. What happened to your prediction?

    Also, have you asked Joe Bastardi why, a year later, temperatures haven’t returned to 1990 levels?

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