Will 2010 Stay Hot? And Joe Bastardi: Return To 1970s Cold
With all the talk about heat waves and alleged record high global temps, one could be led to think that manmade global warming is real and that we’d better install the mercury lights made by Philipps and use electricity made by GE wind generators, and invest in green commodities packaged by Al Gore.
As the following graphic shows, it was a warm year globally. Careful though, some of them red dots are exaggerated in my view, as we know there are lots of instrumental issues and dubious computational methods involved (see here).
And the media are still going wild with all the hype about heat waves. Is the globe really hot everywhere now?
And will it remain hot for the rest of the year? The answer is NO!
The next chart shows the temperatures for the period July 4-11. Here, as Steve Goddard shows at WUWT here, 5% more pixels were cool than warm. The globe has definitely cooled over the last weeks, as it enters a La Nina phase.
The first six months were dominated by the recently fizzled out El Nino. Data now show we’ve entered a La Nina phase (see next chart), and models show with high certainty that we are now headed for a good cooling off, which means headlines of a record-setting 2010 were premature. Here’s the ENSO model forecasts for the next 6 months:
Now let’s look at the southern hemisphere. The following 3 graphics show the forecast for the week ahead, July 17 – 24. Do you see any heat waves in South America? I wonder if we’ll get any press releases on the extreme cold gripping South America? And have we heard anything about Antarctic sea ice almost reaching a record high?
And here’s the outlook for Africa, also more on the cool side:
Australia has reported record cold temps. What’s ahead for Australia in the days ahead? No heat-waves there either.
Okay, maybe I’m cherry picking. What’s ahead for the globe for the next 6 months or so? Here’s the global outlook according to NOAA:
To me it looks like a lot of cooling off going on. Again, all this hype about 2010 being the hottest is about to get doused with cold water. It was premature. I suspect this was known at NOAA, and so they rushed out their overheated press releases while they could. Don’t expect to see any more for quite some time. These headlines and press releases were to help Harry Reid (God forbid he gets his crap and trade bill through at the end of the month).
Joe Bastardi goes into the forecast at his European website here. Here are some things he says:
The coming drop of global temperatures over the next year, to levels not seen since the 1990s, should put to an end to the AGW argument for good except for the most radical elements.
However, also coming is major drop of .5 to .7C in the global temps which will take us below normal for a time.
And Joe adds:
In addition, the reason for the drop will easily be linked with the cooling of the Pacific, which will remain in its cool stage for the next 30 years. Once the Atlantic, still warm, goes into its cool stage in 10-15 years, global temps will fall even further, back to where they were in the 1970s.
How cold was it in the 1970s? The link that follows is a clip that will tell you.
It even includes Stephen Schneider as a young whippersnapper acknowledging the coming ice age, and displaying his complete ignorance of global commerce, thinking every country is isolated from each other like North Korea.
There you have it. We’ll find out soon enough who’s right, and who’s full of it.