Archive for the ‘Weather’ category

Bitter Cold Winter Ahead – Get Your Parkas Ready

August 9, 2010

By bitter, I mean much colder than normal. This is a summary of what the experts are saying and what the data are showing.

We just got a strong El Nino behind us and now a La Nina is forming in the Pacific and is barreling ahead in full development, see the chart below. It’s got the potential to be a big one, meaning global temperatures will go into a nosedive in the months ahead.

Joe Bastardi thinks temperatures will reach levels we saw back when Pinatubo blew its top, and maybe lower.

The next chart shows the NWS/NCEP forecast for the fall and winter. Strangely, the German weather services here are predicting a 60% chance the coming winter in Germany will be warmer than normal – which doesn’t agree with what NWS service is forecasting. Europe is projected to be about normal. Note: As Joe Bastardi’s latest video shows, regional forecasts coming out of NOAA are sometimes very very wrong!

Take a look at the Arctic in the right side panels above, i.e. December to April. We’re talking deep freeze. That’s quite a difference from the constant red bloodbath we’re used to seeing from GISS and NOAA. The months ahead are going to be really tough for those trying to avoid the Al Gore effect.

Average global temps to a great extent will depend on the depth of the La Nina. Look at the following graph and compare this La Nina with the last one back in 2007-08. What do you see? Where were we at this time in 07? Looks to me right around zero. This time around we’re already 1°C below that. Also look at the overall slope in this year’s plummet.

This La Nina will seriously depress global temps in the months ahead, thus throwing ice water on the NCDC’s fantasy of the hottest year ever. It’ll be interesting watching them try to pull it off. They need it for Cancun.

The poles are also indicating lower temperatures. No death spiral in the Arctic. Zed’s dead, baby. The DMI chart already shows freezing at 80°+N latitude. But it has ticked up a bit. No matter it was the coldest melt season in that area on record – in the “hottest year ever”. Go figure!

The Arctic will not set a new record low sea ice minimum this year, as many were hoping, panting and drooling for. It isn’t even going to set the second lowest.  A third lowest is still in the works, though the odds are tightening. Total sea ice of the north and south poles is smack normal – and again, this in the “hottest year” on record.

Okay, a winter’s forecast is not climate – many will crow. Yes, but weren’t we told that such winters were a thing of the past? To the contrary, more and more we’re hearing they may very well be a thing of the future.

Folks, all these nice graphs are available at my Climatic Indicators side bar on my homepage. Take a look and you be the judge.

Extreme Cold Kills 6 Million Fish In Bolivia: “Environmental Catastrophe”

August 6, 2010
Here’s an ongoing weather event, which is supposed to be rare.

We know it’s been cold as heck in South America. In fact it’s been so cold that fish have been dying on a mass scale. This today is being reported by the German online Stern and other outlets.

Authorities say that 6 million fish have died as a result of the cold. Also read here.  This report writes:

Authorities in the eastern Bolivian province of Santa Cruz declared an alert following the death of fish in the Grande, Pirai and Ichilo rivers that run through the tropical region.
This is an “environmental catastrophe” brought on by the lowest temperatures registered in Santa Cruz in nearly half a century, Gov. Ruben Costas told reporters.

We’ve seen reports on how the cold in South America has been deadly for humans too, see here. Later reports mention 500 dead.

And it’s still cold. And it’s going to remain cold as well, see here.

GKSS Frets There Are No Reliable 3-Month Forecasts For Europe (Yet Climate Scientists Are Confident In Their 50 And 100 Year Forecasts)

July 21, 2010

The German GKSS research centre located near Hamburg has put out a press release that kind of baffles me. Early Warning System For Heat Waves Necessary.
The press release starts:

After a very cold winter, a heat wave has gripped Germany. All signs point to July being the hottest month ever since records have been kept. The heat wave hit us just as surprisingly as the past extreme winter. So far there have not been any reliable instruments for predicting extremes. The Climate Service Center of the GKSS ResearchCentre in Geesthacht recommends improving forecast models.

I’ve been living in Germany since 1990, and to me this has not been a really hot summer. We’ve had some hot days, but with cool weather in between over the last 4 weeks – whoopie. It’s being hyped and milked for all it’s worth.
But that is not what surprises me. What surprises me is the claim there are no reliable instruments for predicting heat waves and cold waves. The press release states:

Currently it is not possible to make reliable seasonal forecasts for Europe, and to sort of predict extremely hot summers or heat waves. This is urgently needed in order to be able to implement the necessary adaptive measures and thus reduce the negative impacts on man and environment.

I think that’s crap. There are number of organisations that have had pretty good track records in making seasonal forecasts. So where could the notion that there are no reliable forecasts come from?

The press release amply cites the NOAA.

Voila! There’s your answer. If you rely on dubious institutions for your information, then you can only reach the “no-reliable-forecasts” conclusion. And we also know that the Met Office, with their super computers, failed miserably in their seasonal forecasts, so much so that they became a laughing stock and have since given it up.

But to say there no reliable forecasts available for Europe is false. There are. For example, how is it that Joe Bastardi of Accuweather has consistently called them right? Joe not only predicted the hot summer back in February/March (early warning enough I’d say), but also forecast the cold winter back last fall. Contact him. Maybe his data sources and models are better – less corrupt.

I called Rüdiger Braun, GKSS press spokesman, and he was kind enough to explain that the target is to simply build upon the existing system and to improve it.

Sounds reasonable. My suggestion then is that they start by separating the bad forecast models from the good ones, and to take it from there.

Finally, it’s peculiar how climate scientists insist their 20, 50 and 100-year projections are spot on, while other scientists fret about the lack of reliable 3-month forecasts.

And finally here’s the forecast for my town here in Germany. 20°C is a heat wave, right?

South America Cold Kills 175 – Where’s The Media?

July 20, 2010

Bitter cold grips South America.

When the temperature sinks far below normal and people freeze to death, you hardly hear a peep from the media anymore.

But as soon as the temperature rises a few degrees over normal for a day or more, the media explodes with headlines of “HEAT WAVE!” and “SCORCHING HEAT!”.

Thanks to the internet and a few media outlets, few and far in between, the inconvenient news of a devastating, protracted cold snap gripping much of south America is coming out. Read news24.com/World/News.

Here are some grisly statistics:

1. 175 dead in 6 countries
2. 112 people had died of hypothermia and flu in Peru.
3. 16 people froze to death and 11 died of carbon monoxide poisoning due to faulty heaters.
4. Thousands of cattle also froze to death on their pastures in Paraguay and Brazil.
5. In Bolivia, 18 people died, in Paraguay five and two each in Chile and Uruguay. Nine people died of the cold in southern Brazil.

How cold is it? Take a look at this post I put up three days ago. return-to-1970s-cold/, showing the 7 day outlook.

You’d think when they’re not too busy covering Zsa Zsa Gabor, the media would cover this.
In Germany, it seems the major news magazines are finding space and time to report the cold – along with the reports of the warm weather we’re having here, which will end in about 36 hours.

 But Germany’s ARD Teklevsion has NOTHING. Same goes for ZDF television. Hmmm.

I couldn’t find much at the major US news services either. CBS – nothing. At CNN there’s a report that’s a day old with 17 deaths. Nothing at the right wing Fox either. Maybe others are better at finding big news.

Watch Joe Bastardi’s Monday Morning Sea Ice Reports

July 19, 2010

I’ve been following Joe’s forecasts here in Europe for about 2 years. At first I thought he was just another weatherman and didn’t put too much stock in what he said. Then I noticed his 3 to 6-month general forecasts were pretty darn accurate.

Joe Bastardi

Back in 2008 he predicted a cold winter for Europe – and it panned out. Last fall 2009 he predicted a harsh winter for central Europe, and Germany got its worst winter in 46 years. Late last winter he predicted a hot summer – and bam! Hello hot summer.

Meanwhile, the Met Office, equipped with its monster-size, mega-million dollar super-computers, was not even able to do better than flipping a penny.

They’ve since given up issuing seasonal forecasts, yet still insist their 50 and 100-year forecasts will be correct because of the dubious “undisputed CO2-temperature correlation”. (If that’s so, why waste your money on a super-computer?)

Here’s the latest Joe Bastardi clip: Monday Morning Sea Ice Report,  which I’m sure you’ll enjoy. Tune in everyday. You’ll love his anecdotes and easy going attitude. I’ve added a direct link to Joe, along with my leading climatic indicators at my homepage. Check ’em out!

Record Cold Set At Antarctic Station

July 15, 2010

The German online news magazine FOCUS reports here today that a new record low temperature has been set at a station in Antarctica.  

The Neumayer III station, operated by Germany’s Alfred Wegener Institute, has recorded the lowest temperature at their Antarctic location since the start of operations there 29 years ago. The mercury dropped to -50.2°C.  

Alfred Wegener Institute Neumayer III Antarctic station

According to polar meteorologist Gert König-Langlo of the Neumayer III, such similarly low temperatures have been recorded only 10 times since Neumayer operations began at this location. Says König-Langlo: 

This is the first time we’ve gone under the minus 50 degree mark. 

Station Location: 70° 40′ 8″ S, 8° 16′ 2″ W

The Neumayer III is located on the approximately 200-meter thick Ekstrom Ice Shelf. The station is moving with the shelf ice at about 200 meters per year in the direction of the open sea.

FOCUS online is quick to point out that this record cold is not a sign of climate change, but rather it is a local regional weather phenomenon (only warm events are signs of climate change).  

According to König-Langlo:  

The cause was the ongoing cloudless and very low wind weather conditions, which is rare in the region. A light breeze is enough to put an end to the phenomenon. 

Das Eisbox – First 6 Months of 2010 In Germany Coldest In 14 Years

July 9, 2010

Right now, like the east coast of the USA, Germany is in the middle of a heat wave. Indeed the eastern parts of Germany and Poland are expected to stay hot with temperatures over 35°C (95°F) without an end in sight. Luckily I’m living in the northwest part of Germany, and here temps are expected to moderate somewhat by early next week.

Let me remind you that Joe Bastardi forecast a hot summer for Central Europe – and he’s right again. He had also forecast a cold winter 2009/10, and he hit that right on too. Who needs the Met!

Well it’s official. The first 6 months of 2010 in Germany were the coldest in 14 years, this is reported by the Readers Edition here.

The measurements go back to 1761. The first 6 months of this year (January through June) recorded an average temperature of 5.9 °C , the coldest since 1996. This value was almost 0.5°C below the longterm average of the reference value from 1961-1990 (6.4 °C).

So how does the rest of the year look for Germany and Europe as a a whole? The Readers Edition posted this graphic from the warmist NOAA. Looks like a hot July, but then cooling off.

Of course the German mainstream media hardly mentioned the cool first half year. They’re too busy complaining about the current hot weather, which most Germans rarely get and are now enjoying. And you can be sure that when August rolls around, the media will be trumpeting the “unusually hot July” as yet another sign of global warming.