Archive for July 2010

Arctic Sea Ice Melt This July Slowest On Record – “Death Spiral” Is Dead

July 31, 2010

Today I’m coming out a day early and declaring July 2010 as the slowest melting July since the AMSR-E satellite record has been kept. The once ballyhooed “death spiral” is dead.

Reminds me of that line in Tarantino’s cult film Pulp Fiction:

“Who’s Zed?”

“Zed? Zed is dead.”

At the end of June I recall seeing lots of headlines in the newspapers about a record Arctic sea ice melt occurring. Words like “alarming” and “unprecedented” were used liberally. The reports were splashed with pictures of polar bears for added effect.

One month later the media are completely silent. As the following graphic shows, this July’s Arctic sea ice melt was the slowest since this dataset has been kept.  Click Here.

Here are the numbers for the amount of July-melt in million square kilometers:
Year      6/30 to 7/30
2003           2.25
2004           2.08
2005           2.52
2006           2.11
2007           3.00
2008           2.45
2009           2.81
2010          1.85

It was the first time that July failed to reach 2 million sq. km. Now 2010 is on track to reach last year’s low. So far the Arctic has been cold this summer, one of the coldest summers north of 80°N on record, Click Here.

What’s the forecast?

Meteorologist Joe Bastardi projects a significant Arctic sea ice recovery in the couple of years ahead, flying in the face of predictions made by climate “scientists”. Bastardi’s claim is in line with the latest NOAA seasonal forecasts.

La Nina is strengthening and global temps, dare I say, are beginning a death-spiral of their own.

Arctic Sea Ice Level Projections Adjusted Upwards

July 30, 2010

The July Arctic sea ice outlook for September is out. Click here.

Here’s a graphic of the prediction made by 16 different institutes this month, now that they are all 30 days wiser.

Now compare this to the projections made 30 days ago, late June.

Then again, some are incapable of learning anything. Anyway, at least five now concede that we may not even reach last year’s low. Strangely, after July’s slow melt, some have grown even more pessimistic.

Then again, optimism has never been a trait one finds in climate “science”. Who do you think will grab the headlines?

New German/Russian Temperature Reconstruction Shows No Correlation With CO2

July 30, 2010

A new temperature reconstruction carried out by a team of German/Russian scientists has yielded interesting results. It finds no correlation over the last 400 years between atmospheric CO2 and the temperature in the Arctic regions studied.

CONTINUE READING AT OUR NEW WEBSITE:

Malignant Science: Next Gate-Update Coming August 3

July 29, 2010
Next week on August 3, I’ll be releasing my latest list of climate scandals, a gate-update (see Current list of climate scandals). This is a month earlier than originally planned.

The list that’s posted now is visited on average about 100 times a day. Clearly it has become some sort of resource.

Unsurprisingly, the new list coming out has grown, and it will continue to grow. This is assured because of the way climate science is operated, funded, rewarded and politicised.

The disease is hopelessly chronic and there is no treatment in sight. The system is designed, built and programmed to keep producing many more scandals. Already I see dozens of new gates in incubation.

“Climate science” even has its own immune system that works to keep out the deadly virus called “truth”.  The reality of that immune system became clear with the Muir Russell, Oxburgh and Penn State enquiries.

Soon I will have to break the climate-gate list into Volumes 1 and 2.  I have no doubts about this.

The real threat, unfortunately, is that “climate science” risks becoming a malignant cancer that will threaten to spread to other fields of science and to our public institutions. In some cases it already has. Because of “climate science”, the public is losing trust in science and the civic institutions that are supposed to police it. As mistrust of climate science reaches ever higher levels, so will the public mistrust in other fields.

Scientists in these other fields need to take notice.

Foodchain-Angst: Scientists and Media Spread More Enviro-Shock & Awe

July 29, 2010

Update 7/30/2010: WUWT debunks this scare: here!

Reading the German online daily news this morning, today’s scare-de-jour is the “shocking” reduction of phytoplankton now underway, all due of course to manmade climate change. The “news” is based on a report just published in Nature by scientists Daniel Boyce and Marlon Lewis of the Dalhousie University (Halifax) and Boris Worm of the German Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (think Schellnhuber and Rahmstorf).

When reading about such stories,  it’s a very good idea to first read the following:

Science Turns Authoritarian

Here’s a sampling of today’s headlines in Germany:

Die Welt PLANKTON REDUCTION PUTS FOOD CHAIN AT RISK
Der Spiegel: FOOD CRISIS IN WORLD’S OCEANS
Focus: GREEN FOOD SUPPLY IN OCEANS SHRINKING
Süddeuschte Zeitung: DISAPPEARING IN THE OCEANS

The cause of the phytoplankton decrease is “warming of the oceans”, Nature reports. Satellite measurements since the end of the 1970s have shown fluctuation in oceanic plankton levels, but have not delivered a clear picture.

That’s why the researchers went back and looked at data of ocean chlorophyll content. The team analysed almost 450,000 measurements from the period 1899 to 2008. The result, according to Die Welt:

In eight of ten oceanic regions, phytoplankton has decreased during the 20th century. Content dropped with increasing sea surface temperature, especially in the tropics and subtopics regions. It is suspected that as a consequence of warming, a more pronounced layering of water occurred.

Süddeutsche Zeitung writes that phytoplankton concentrations in the oceans have declined by two thirds since 1899.

What do I think?

The study involves the Potsdam Institute For Climate Impact Research, directed by Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, visionary of The Great Transformation , and Stefan Rahmstorf, who predicts sea levels will rise 1.7 meters in the next 90 years, but refuses to even bet on a 60 cm rise. This is an institute that is well well-known for activist science and fear-mongering, with the clear agenda of reorganizing how people live. A dangerous social engineering experiment.

I’m sure the findings of this study will turn out to be more plankton-crap.

UPDATE: Beware of science authority. Above I mentioned the Science Turns Authoritarian story, which looked at how often certain authoritarian phrases are used in the media. Click on the following graphic:

Be wary, be very wary, of media claims on climate science.

Judith Lean Forgets Clouds, Water Vapour And Longer-Term Ocean Oscillations As Factors

July 28, 2010

Some of you will recall this pretty face we saw a couple of months ago.

We got to know her herehere and here. The IPCC based solar impact on climate on the “consensus of a single astronomer, who agreed with herself”.

In March, 2008, Dr. Lean made a presentation on global warming, see the following video link:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OOMsQcEN1Bg

It kind of surprises me (and yet it doesn’t) that she doesn’t even mention water vapour as a greenhouse gas. She neglects to mention the PDO as well, looking only at the small timescale El Ninos and La Ninas.

She also completely ignores clouds as a factor effecting the temperature of the earth.

I guess the models are getting simpler and simpler (I mean the climate models).

Okay, it appears this video is not complete, and so I’ll hold back judgement.

Next Crisis: Water Consumption

July 28, 2010

Climate journalism is like being at a third-world bazar where the media behave like merchants all shouting, pitching their catastrophe stories.

Die Welt’s recent piece From Proud Jordan River, To A Smelly Trickle (roughly translated) features the crisis of water consumption and the injustice of water’s uneven distribution. Now water needs to be redistributed, along with wealth and misery.

Although the article is mainly a rant against Israeli water policy, its other objective is to admonish western societies for their profligate use of water.

This is a theme that’s steadily gaining traction on the environmental front here in Europe – along with biodiversity, ocean acidification, manmade microscopic aerosols and climate change. It’s the latest hot-seller catastrophe joining the enviro-bazar.

Die Welt doesn’t hold back citing environmental and activist groups for its reliable, “unbiased” and shocking information. At first the story focusses on Israeli water management and how it’s unfair to neighboring countries.

Die Welt writes:

According to Amnesty International, the average Israeli consumes 300 liters of water daily, while a Palestinian consumes only 70 liters. In poor regions a mere 20 liters is available daily for each person.

At the end of the story, Die Welt admonishes western lifestyles and its excessive use of water.

The story concludes with a photo gallery that informs readers how much water consumption is needed to manufacture some basic daily products we enjoy in our daily lives. Examples:

1 hamburger: 2400 litres
1 hardboiled egg for breakfast: 135 litres
1 slice of bread: 40 litres
10 grams of cheese: 50 litres
1 cup of coffee: 140 liters
1 German breakfast: 365 liters
200 grams of potato chips: 185 liters
2-gram computer chip: 32 liters
1 sheet of paper: 10 liters
1 cotton T-shirt: 4100 liters!
1 pair of cowhide shoes: 8000 liters
1 new car: 450,000 liters

The idea is to tell us consumers that we are simply consuming too much water and that it’s having catastrophic impacts on the environment and poor people. It’s unfair and it has to be regulated. We need to feel guilty about it.

Wikipedia lists the potential manifestations of excessive water consumption:

There are several principal manifestations of the water crisis.
– Inadequate access to water for sanitation and waste disposal for 2.5 billion people
– Groundwater over drafting (excessive use) leading to diminished agricultural yields
– Overuse and pollution of water resources harming biodiversity
– Regional conflicts over scarce water resources sometimes resulting in warfare.

Expect the water crisis to get worse (not in reality, but in the media and political world). Get ready to hear a lot more about this in the future. Water-saving devices will be joining energy-saving devices soon in the government’s force-the-people-to-buy-list.

John Kerry’s Enviro-Vessel With 10,000-Liter Fuel Tank

July 27, 2010

John Kerry is a co-sponsor of the latest Cap & Trade bill, which thank God has been put off indefinitely. The bill, should it become law, God forbid, would force all working Americans to pay more for energy and to live more humbly.

But living humbly and paying more taxes to the government applies only to the little guys. For the rich, elite and privileged, like Kerry, they’d continue to fly around in private jets, be chauffeured in limousines and frolic the seas in big yachts. Watch Kerry’s reaction when confronted about skirting Massachusetts taxes by birthing his new 76 foot $7 million yacht in Rhode Island:

[SEE VIDEO]

By berthing the yacht in Rhode Island, Kerry skirts paying nearly $450,000 in sales tax and a yearly $70,000 excise tax bill to his own home state. Look at how pissy he gets when confronted by the media.

Worse, Kerry, who claims to be fighting for American jobs, had the yacht built in New Zealand. The same yacht could have been built at a yard in his own state of Massachusetts. So much for American jobs. And what about environmental friendliness?

What does a 76-foot yacht include?

According to the Boston Herald, Kerry’s yacht has two cabins, a pilot house fitted with a wet bar and cold wine storage.

I wasn’t able to get further specific information on Kerry’s yacht, but looking at other typical 76-foot yachts on the market, we find that they are far from spartan. Take this 76-foot Monte Fino for only $2,450,000 – a real bargain when compared to Kerry’s $7 million cruiser. The Monte Fino includes a 10,000 liter diesel fuel tank, 1500 hp twin engines and is filled with high-tech electronic doo-dads.

God knows what Kerry got for his $7 million.

Kerry spokesman David Wade said Friday the boat is being kept at Newport Shipyard not to evade taxes, but “for long-term maintenance, upkeep and charter purposes.”

John Kerry is married to Theresa Heinz, who is millionaire heiress to the Heinz ketchup fortune, and is a philanthropist and environmentalist.

When you’re rich, you can do things like this. It’s okay. But these rich people should not be making it much harder for the rest of us to make ends meet.

When confronted by the media in the above clip, Kerry defends berthing the floating palace in tax-haven Rhode island, claiming he is paying his taxes. Then he scuttles away – not on a bicycle or in a hybrid car – but in a chauffeured SUV.

“Can I get outa here please!”, he orders his chauffeur.

And let’s not forget Sen. Jeff Greene and 145 ft yacht dragging anchor through coral reef: http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/07/23/1743175/greene-denies-his-anchor-damaged.html

Ocean Acidification Doesn’t Lead To Species Die-Off, Surprising Scientists

July 26, 2010

Pia Heinemann reports in Die Welt today, Ocean Acidification Does Not Lead To Species Die-Off, on a new study appearing in the latest edition of Science. The study contradicts the assumption that ocean acidification leads to species die-off, surprising scientists.Abstract in Science here

Manmade emissions of CO2 are thought to be partly absorbed by the oceans, which in turn would acidify and pose a huge threat to calcareous organisms like corals and plankton. This is the horror story that has been widely circulating in the media for the last couple of years, and with ever-growing alarmism, at a time the dangers of global warming are turning out to be wildly exaggerated.

Italian and Swiss scientists have found answers by looking at 120 million year old sediment deposits. The team directed by Elisabetti Erba of the University of Milan describes new findings in the latest issue of Science.

It is not unusual for CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere to surge after large volcanic eruptions. This has happened often in the past.

They examined microscopic fossils and nannoplankton from a time period just after large volcanic eruptions 120 million years ago, when the air’s CO2 content rose to about twice today’s level. Their studies contradicted their expectations. Die Welt writes:

Contrary to what was expected, no large-scale die-offs occurred among the organisms when acidification increased. The species simply adapted: They formed smaller shells and remained small.

They endured the changes far better than first thought.

Heinemann writes that the study also delivered yet another surprise:

Apparently, the oceans acidify with a delay. After the volcanoes erupted and the surface water pH value began to sink, it took 25,000 to 30,000 years longer for the CO2 effect to reach the sea bottom.

These new findings deal a massive blow to those hoping to exploit ocean acidification as the next disaster scenario to replace the discredited catastrophic AGW story. Expect the MSM to bury or spin the story.

Update/Note: Keep in mind that the plankton and coral studied were from 120 million years ago, meaning the species has since survived climate extremes and changes that were off the charts when compared to today’s mild natural changes. They’ve handled much colder and much warmer conditions with widely varying ocean chemistry.

Update 2: The Alfred Wegener Institute in Germany [Read here] is planning years of research on acidification, costing millions of euros, to study a bogus non-problem. They’ve teamed up with neutral Greenpeace, and so you can be sure they’ll come up with “catastrophic” findings and demand more money for reasearch. Whatever it takes to bilk the taxpayer out of money.

Duisburg Love Parade Disaster: Sceptics’ Warnings Were Dismissed

July 25, 2010

19 dead and up to 400 injured, many seriously.

These are the latest gruesome numbers from yesterday’s Duisburg Love Parade, crowd-control disaster. It’s a classic case of what can go wrong when warnings are ignored or played down. City officials were warned that the location was seriously inadequate, but nobody wanted to be a party-pooper.

Germany’s techno-music Love Parade first started in 1989. Most have been held in Berlin, until the city got tired of the chaos and filth they left behind, and the event had lost money anyway.

Yet, everybody hates to see a good party end, and so other places were sought to host the million-plus visitor event. This year’s choice proved to be a disaster.

The catastrophe occurred at a tunnel under a street that served as the main entrance to the event. The following video vividly shows the catastrophe in motion. Especially interesting is the 0:31 mark of the clip. there you see the fully packed ramp leading down to the tunnel.

LOVE PARADE DISASTER VIDEO

Just the shear physics of the situation alone are staggering.

If you estimate 100,000 people on that sloped ramp, each with an average weight of 70 kg, you have a total weight of 7000 tons trying to move forward. If the ramp has a slope of 3°, then sine 3° times 7000 tones yields a gravity force vector of 366 tons pressing down against the wall. Not a good place to be. Granted that’s just a real rough calculation, but it gives you an idea.

A sure sign that the old rail yard location, where the event took place, was not going to work was its relatively small size. It had an area of 2.2 million square feet, meaning that the place was going to be overly packed with just half a million people. Organisers expected 1 million, 1.4 million showed up. 1.5 sq ft per person. Experts say the area was suitable for a maximum of only 300,000.

Throw in youth, alcohol and drugs and you have all the ingredients for a crowd control disaster.

The police had warned city officials that the risks were too high and had advised against approving the event. But reports say no top city official wanted to be the party-pooper. The Love Parade got the green light.

Now, after the catastrophe, with the nation and continent in shock, officials are scrambling and the finger-pointing has begun. According to German newspaper Bild:

Duisburg mayor Adolf Sauerland defended the safety concept of the Love Parade against criticism.

In his view the reasons for the tragedy were not due to a poor safety concept, but rather very likely had more to do with individual weak points.

Tell that to the prosecuting attorneys Herr Burgermeister.

The State’s Attorney has announced that an investigation for negligent homicide will be conducted, and all city and official documents relating to permitting and organisation of the event have been confiscated by police.

The Love Parade organisation has announced today that there will not be any more Love Parades in the future.

UPDATE – USEFUL LINKS:
http://www.thelocal.de/national/20100726-28737.html
http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,708462,00.html