Archive for the ‘Russian Climate Science’ category

Russian Scientists: Sun Is Waking Up! Solar Particles Reaching the Earth and Magnetic Storms Possible

July 12, 2010

The sun is waking up say Russian scientists after observing a total eclipse of the sun.

Solar cycle 24 took its time getting started, and when it did, it sputtered and faded. But that’s about to change, reports the German edition of the online Russian news service Ria Novosti here

Russian scientists say that the sun will soon come alive after having observed a total eclipse at Easter Island in the Pacific yesterday. They warn that magnetic storms could soon occur.

Dimitri Semyonov, who belongs to the team of observers, says the shape of the sun’s corona indicates an increase in solar activity, but cautions that the observed data still need to be evaluated. He adds:

 The sun is waking up. 

Ria Novosti reports: 

Dr. Sergei Bogatchov of the Laboratory for Solar X-Ray Astronomy at the Lebedev Institute of Physics told Ria Novosti that the back side of the sun has probably just seen the highest level of activity since the start of the year. 

Dr. Sergei Bogatchov says: 

In seven to ten days this active area of the sun will reach a position that will enable charged particles to reach the earth. That’s going to impact the geomagnetic situation – may even lead to magnetic storms. 

 The following graphic shows the location where the solar eclipse was observed yesterday. Sorry it’s in German, but it’s still interesting to look at. 

 

So, it looks like a Maunder Minimum type of solar lull may not happen after all. We ought to be thankful for that. The next one or two weeks will tell us more.

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More Junk Science Out Of NASA. Top Russian Scientist Says There’s “No Scientific Basis” For 2013 Solar Devastation Prediction

June 19, 2010

NASA's 2013 solar activity projections based on junk science.

You’ll recall that WUWT reported here  a couple days ago on NASA’s warnings of “huge space storms” causing devastation in 2013 or so.  Well, one leading Russian scientist has something to say about it.

The German edition of the online Russian RIA Novosti has a report today called: World Catastrophe in 2013? Russian Solar Scientist Is Sceptical. Astrophysicist Sergei Bogatchov told RIA Novosti yesterday:

Today there exists no scientific basis that allows the condition of the earth and the sun to be predicted over such a time period.

Mr. Bogatchov researches at the Laboratory for Solar X-Ray Astronomy at the Lebedev Physical Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

Scientists indeed expect a peak in solar activity in 2013, but nobody can say how strong it’s going to be.

Moreover RIA Novosti reports,

The current solar slumber extending to 2013 also cannot be excluded.

 And adds background info for its readers:

In the past weeks the media quoted the Head of NASA’s Heliophysics Division, Richard Fisher, that unprecedented solar eruptions are to be expected. That could mean disruptions in satellites, shutdowns in navigation systems and power grids.

So there you have it. A leading Russian scientist is scratching his head wondering how NASA scientists could possibly come up with such a prognosis.
My guess is probably the same way they make their climate projections: Conjure up a catastrophe scenario, insist it withstands rigorous review, get the media and idiot politicians to believe it, and then get more funding!

Russia Searching For Reliable Climate Data

April 30, 2010

The German version of RIA Novosti reports that Russia hopes to gain more precise weather forecasts, new findings on global warming and improved exploration of new oil and gas reserves from its planned, new Arktika Satellite system. http://de.rian.ru/science/20100429/126119398.html

The Arktika System, which is made up of 5 satellites,  is a whole new instrument that will deliver absolutely new data on climate change says Alexander Bedrizki, Climate Appointee of the Russian President.  The project will allow continous observation of the Arctic 24 hours per day and be able to measure water temperature and ice thickness. The project will also have economic value because the Arctic holds huge oil and gas reserves. The project will also enable commerical flights to pass over the Arctic.

Alexander Frolow Director of the Russian Weather Service hopes to generate more accurate weather forecasts and to better assess events such as the recent Iceland volcano eruption which was above 60° north latitude.  Current satellite systems were not able to accurately track the cloud of ash from afar.

Russian aerospace company Lawotschkin will begin work on the project this year. Two communications satellites, two waether satellites and a radar satellite for measring ice  and exploring natural resources will be developed and launched into space.

Another Russian Scientist: Arctic Is Cooling

April 28, 2010

Yet another Russian scientist believes the Arctic is set for cooling and thus increasing sea ice, this reported in the German version of the Russian online news RIA NOVOSTI (see links below). Scientist Vladimir Sokolov says:

The warming that occurred in the Arctic has swung back to cooling and sea ice that melted over the past years is recovering.

http://de.rian.ru/science/20100427/126088756.html, The English version is here: http://en.rian.ru/russia/20100427/158771845.html

Arctic sea ice reached a historic minimum in 2007 when it shrank to 4.28 million sq km. But the trend now appears to have reversed. According to the weather observation administration Roshydromet, it has grown by a fifth reaching 5.2 million square km in 2009, Sokolov said at the Petersburg Research Insttitute for the Arctic and Antarctic on Tuesday.

Sokolov calls predictions of continued shrinking Arctic ice “incorrect”.

He says the cooling is due to the polar night and the associated missing sunlight, and this as a result will lead to ice formation. Some scientists are warning that politicians and corporations who promise lucrative oil and gas projects in the Arctic may have made dramatic miscalculations. The researchers say that no warming will take place, instead cooling will impact the earth over the next decades.

Dr Pokrovsky Replies

April 27, 2010

Dr Oleg Pokrovsky has kindly taken the time to provide further information on his recent remarks, which have been widely quoted. We thank him for doing so. He writes as follows and includes a link to a ppt. presentation (see below):

Dear Colleagues,

Thank you for discussion of my conclusions presented at recent IPY conference
occurred in AARI (St.Petersburg, Russia).
My vision of future climate is based on comprehensive analysis of climate index series analysis, which permits to reveal fundamental quasi-periodical oscillations in most components of climate system:
-Solar activity
-SST of ocean (AMO and PDO)
-Surface air temperature
– Surface irradiance
-Precipitations
-Ice extent in Russian Arctic Seas
I found that that those are in strong coherence when inter-annual climate noise was removed in each of them
My motivation might be illustrated by a set of figures presented at recent Arctic Frontiers Conference (Tromso, Norway)
http://www.arctic-frontiers.com/index.php?option=com_docman&task=doc_download&gid=242&Itemid=155

Please keep your comments focused on the contents Dr Pokrovsky’s presentation.

Russian Scientist: 4% More Antarctic Sea Ice – Ozone Hole Cooling Antarctica

April 24, 2010

The April 21, 2010 German edition of the Russian news website RIA Novosti has a piece with a possible explanantion as to why Antarctic sea ice is expanding while the rest of the globe is warming. http://de.rian.ru/science/20100421/126005955.html

A Russian scientist believes it is due to the ozone hole over the South Pole. According to Alexander Klepikov of the Research Instritute for Arctic and Antarctic at the Conference Maritime Research of Polar Regions of the Earth in the International Polar Year:

Over the last 3o years of satellite measurement, the growth of the ice amount in the Southern Ocean which surrounds Antarctica was more than 4 percent.

Klepikov emphasised that sea ice growth around the Antarctic coast was irregular and occurred at different areas. There was an especially large amount of sea ice growth in the Ross Sea located in the western part of the Pacific sector. Klepikov says British researchers, using mathematical models and analysis of meteorological data, could attribute the increasing sea ice trend to the so-called ozone anomaly in the South Pole region.

Reduced ozone concentrations over the South Pole leads to cooling of the upper atmosphere, and eventually leads to a strengthening of the circumpolar circular flow – winds that blow along the Antarctic coast and protect the Antarctic zone against the effects of warmer air. The same mechanism has the opposite effect on the Larsen Ice Shelf, causing increased melting.

Russian Scientist: Expect Cooling – Pols Sitting On The Wrong Horse

April 23, 2010

http://de.rian.ru/science/20100423/126040500.html

In the German edition of Ria Novosti, Russian scientist Oleg Pokrovsky of the Main Geophysical Observatory says the world should expect cooling – and not warming – and that this will interfere with Russia’s plans to exploit the Arctic’s rich resources. The climate has been cooling since 1998.

At a climate research conference for the Arctic and Antarctic in St. Petersburg, Friday, Pokrovsky said the Earth’s temperature fluctuates in 60-year cycles.

There isn’t going to be an ice age, but temperatures will drop to levels last seen in the 1950s and 1960s.

Pokrovsky adds:

Right now all components of the climate system are entering a negative phase.  The cooling will reach it’s peak in 15 years. Politicians who have geared up for warming are sitting on the wrong horse.

The Northeast Passage will freeze over and will be passable only with icebreakers.

Pokrovsky also claims that the IPCC, which has prophesized global warming, has ignored many factors. He also noted that most American weather stations are located in cities where temperatures are always higher.

We don’t know everything that’s happening. The climate system is very complex and the IPCC is not the final truth on the matter.

UPDATE,  4/26/2010: Here’s the RIA NOVOSTI English version: http://en.rian.ru/Environment/20100423/158714403.html

UPDATE 2: Dr Pokrovsky replies here: https://pgosselin.wordpress.com/2010/04/27/dr-pokrovsky-replies/