German Media Panic Over Weather, Yet Tropical Storm Energy Near Record Lows.

Indeed here in Germany the media have stepped up the dramatic reporting in the wake of Deutsche Welle’s international conference on journalism and climate, reported here: Journalism for Dummkopfs.Driving home yesterday I heard a report on publicly funded German NDR News radio, asking a climate expert (paraphrasing):

Are the recent, numerous weather extremes seen worldwide ominous signs of the climate catastrophe?

NDR went on to mention the weather anomalies in Moscow, Pakistan, China and the local floods in the eastern part of Germany, and emphasized all the death and destruction along with it (They forgot to mention the severe cold in South America). Fortunately, the data tells the opposite story.

Cyclones and storms near all-time lows

Yet anyone taking a closer look will see that all the extraordinary drama is confined to the newsrooms, and is not what’s going on outside.  The latest tropical cyclone energy index shows that cyclones are near all-time lows. Where are all the big cyclones we were told would be coming in the wake of Katrina?

Source: http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/

Nasty weather extremes have always occurred, and there are no statistics to show they’ve picked up. The number of deaths resulting from weather and natural disasters is also declining. There are many factors involved here, but the sky fell more often back then than today.

What about tornados in the USA? The following graphic also shows a downward trend. http://www.oism.org/pproject/s33p36.htm

The worst happened in the past

Indeed looking at the top 10 weather catsatrophes in the USA, the worst ones happened long ago. See Live Science here.

  1. 1900 Galveston  Hurricane, 8,000 dead
2. 2005 Hurricane Katrina, 1,836 dead
3. 1930′s Dust Bowl
4. 1906 San Francisco fire / earthquake 3,000 dead
5. 1928 Okeechobee Hurricane, at least 2,500 dead
6. 1980 Heat Wave, massive drought, and 10,000 dead
7. 1988 Heat Wave, between 5,000 and 10,000 dead.
8. 1889 Johnstown Flood, leveled 1,600 homes, killing 2,209
9. 1871 Peshtigo Fire; scorched 12 towns and left 1,200 dead
10. 1925 Tri-State Tornado, nearly 700 dead

But let’s not focus only on the USA, where statistics are easy to get. Let’s look at other parts of the world. Now here’s a graphic (sorry about the quality) showing cyclone activity in the bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea from 1890 until 2000. Looks downward to me. Here the vertical axis shows the annual frequency of cyclones and the x-axis shows the year. The dark line is the 10-year moving average.

Fewer people than ever are dying from weather extremes

And what about deaths globally? With all the bad climate change and growing populations, you’d think people would be getting killed on a massive scale. The following graphic shows the opposite is true.

All the panic is in the newsrooms

So why do some believe that extreme weather events are occurring more often than ever and that more people are dying and suffering? This is because the media stories have increased dramatically over the years, as they report on every Tiny Tim storm out there as if it were a Cat 5.  It’s overhyped.

Source of following graphic: http://www.nature.com/embor/journal/v8/n3/fig_tab/7400924_f1.html

The above graphic shows the number of newspaper reports about climate change, which is often cited as the reason for every weather anomaly happening out there. Fortunately, things on this big blue planet of ours have been quieter weatherwise, and people have caught on with respect to what all the media hype is about.

All the commotion is coming from the over-agitated folks in the newrooms.

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12 Comments on “German Media Panic Over Weather, Yet Tropical Storm Energy Near Record Lows.”

  1. DennisA Says:

    Usual stuff from Potsdam, still no mention of South America.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6782DU20100809

  2. Bob Wilson Says:

    Excellent, excellent piece. Thank you, Pierre, for your wonderful posts! I note that Wm Gray’s predictions from 4 August hold at 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes; he is also predicting an ACE of 178 for the rest of this season. Joe Bastardi is also predicting an active season to come. So, as always, we’ll see! But, with each day that passes, I’m growing hopeful that this season turns out to be a flop, having been through a few of these potentially dreadful storms.

    Bob W.

    • pgosselin Says:

      That’s one reason I wrote this post now. Gray and Bastardi may be right. It would be odd not to get so many hurricanes. Activity is bound to pick up again because it’s normal. The media are making fools of themselves, all running out to a corner of Russia and to Pakistan to come up with a weather anomaly to fret about.

  3. Brian H Says:

    Not to mention that warming would probably result in fewer major atmospheric disturbances, as the gradient between poles and tropics lessened. Don’t tell the press that the lower storm rate confirms warming!
    LOL

  4. DirkH Says:

    A quick check of what the public is intended to see is always the German google news frontpage (without personalization). ATM there’s only one vaguely climate-related headline; Russian forest fires vs. Russian nuclear plants. Checking the article… no mention of climate change BUT! they mention the very bad state of fire protection in Russia. And that from Der Stern. I’m positively impressed.

    http://www.stern.de/panorama/waldbrand-katastrophe-so-bedroht-sind-russlands-reaktoren-1591876.html

    So this looks not too bad. I know, that guy from Munich Re stirred up panic a few days ago, asserting we’re heading for ever greater disasters. The media guys&gals still need to learn that it’s the job of the Munich Re spokesperson to stir up panic; that much is true.

  5. R. de Haan Says:

    “All the commotion is coming from the over-agitated folks in the news rooms”.

    Who don’t take their journalistic profession seriously.

    What about objectivity and checking the facts.

    Our news rooms only produce propaganda instead of news.

    This is something to worry about.

    Rabarberrabarberrabarberrabarberrabarber, especially in a country with a history like Germany.


  6. Dr. Gosselin,

    The figure on deaths and death rates from extreme weathet events is not sourced correctly and, more importantly, it is dated.

    (1) The correct source is : Goklany, IM (2006), “Death and Death Rates Due to Extreme Weather Events: Global and U.S. Trends, 1900-2004,” prepared for the proceedings of the Climate Change & Disaster Losses Workshop, Hohenkammer, Germany, May 25–26, 2006. It’s available at http://goklany.org/library/Extreme%20Events%20Note%20Hohenkammer.pdf.

    (2) In any case, an update is available which spans 1900-2008 in Goklany, IM (2009), “Deaths and Death Rates from Extreme Weather Events: 1900-2008.” Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons 14 (4): 102-09 (2009). That’s available at http://www.jpands.org/vol14no4/goklany.pdf. Feel free to use the figures (with attribution, of course).

    Thanks! Everyone here appreciates your contribution. -PG (please note that I’m not a doctor…I’m only an unpaid merchant of doubt!)

  7. Brian H Says:

    R. de H.;
    Is that barberra thing a Dutch expression? Enquiring minds want to know.

  8. R. de Haan Says:

    Brian, Rabarber (Rheum rhabarbarum) is a vegetable.
    But during political meetings before the second world war people in Germany, by frequently repeating the word in a deep voiced manner, disturbed the speech of a speaker of the opposite party.

    Very effective but incredibly impolite.

    The meaning of Rabarber is the same in the German and Dutch language.

  9. Brian H Says:

    Hmm, seems to me its English equivalent “rhubarb” would serve the same purpose here! :-D
    PS – Wiktionary found it in Danish, too. ;)

  10. bre Says:

    I am a 8th grade teacher in NC and came across your site while researching some information about tropical storms for my class this year. I just wanted to thank you first of all for the great information and articles about tropical storms, and second let you know about a site we are putting together for teachers that might have some useful information for your site.

    We would love it if you could write a few articles for us, or link to some of the current articles to help us spread trusted resources to other teachers. I have included a link to the site below in hopes you might want to write some articles for us or link to it.

    Thanks and keep the great resources coming :)

    Bre Matthews

    http://www.thefreeresource.com/how-tropical-storms-begin-resources-and-information

  11. Brian H Says:

    And in other non-reported non-panic news,
    Thang kew, ladies and germs!
    Well, not so much the ladies.

    The Gulf is now plumeless. Germs et it. All gone. Nummy!

    http://www.newsdaily.com/stories/tre67n5cc-us-oil-spill-microbes/


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