NOAA Models Predict Big Arctic Deep Freeze

Scientists often say that if you want to see the climate change signal, then look at the poles, especially the Arctic. How often have we seen the following red-coloured graphic, or similar, and thought: Oh my God!

Typical Arctic meltdown graphic used to scare the bejesus out of people.

Well don’t panic. Even with all the “hottest-ever-first-6 months” in 2010 belly-aching, temperatures are about to take a dive. I’m not talking about because of fall and winter are approaching, I’m talking temperature anomalies over the winter. They are projected to be far below normal.

The NOAA models predict a major cooling for the Arctic this coming winter. Indeed they show a significant cooling globally. These models have been converging on an Arctic deep freeze for a few weeks now. Already the mercury north of 80° latitude has taken a dip back down to the freezing point, see DMI chart:

Upper Arctic temperatures have dipped.

Now lets look at the NOAA Arctic seasonal forecast for the period Aug/Sep/Oct 2010:

Global surface temperatures for Aug/Sep/Oct 2010

In the above chart, you can see that the Arctic above Scandinavia, Russia, Siberia has cooled to a slight negative anomaly. The Canadian Arctic is still on the warm side. But almost everything above the 80°N line is blue, meaning colder than normal.

Now take a look at the next NOAA graphic which shows the global temperature anomalies for the period Jan/Feb/Mar 2011 – the dead of winter (entire NOAA graphic series here):

Brrrrr! Arctic temps 2°C below normal in Jan/Feb/Mar 2011

Look at all the deep blue up in the Arctic indicating well below normal temperatures! Some readers may say: “Well, it’s only 1 or 2°C below normal, what’s the big deal?”  It is a big deal. Today warmists are screeching about global temperature anomalies of +0.5°C.  So 2.0°C in the Arctic is huge. The Pacific and the Antarctic coast are also frigid.

Keep in mind this this post was written just by looking at the leading Climatic Indicators I have listed on my homepage. Anyone can go there and take a look at the charts. The data are there, take a look at them yourself and draw your own conclusions. Do your own thinking.

How long will the cold last? That depends on the developing La Nina. Again the big climate institutes point to a good-sized La Nina.

La Nina in the forecast

So, to summarise, expect Arctic sea ice to get pretty low this year, and to hear lots of headlines about it, but then watch the ice recover next year. Joe Bastardi thinks it could reach near record highs. This of course depends on how reliable the NOAA seasonal forecasts are.

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8 Comments on “NOAA Models Predict Big Arctic Deep Freeze”

  1. Ed Caryl Says:

    OMG! The sky is falling! (Sorry, couldn’t resist.)

  2. John Blake Says:

    In context of a looming 70-year Maunder Minimum similar to that of 1645 – 1715, in perspective of an overdue end to Earth’s current 12,250-year Holocene Interglacial Epoch skewed by the Younger Dryas “cold shock” that ended c. BC 7300, Gaia’s benign “Long Summer” may be fading fast.

    Should the next few decades presage a cyclical resurgence of Ice Time, climate hysterics’ willful sabotage of global energy economies will have left human populations unprepared. Unprecedented mega-deaths are what nihilistic Luddite sociopaths such as Briffa, Hansen, Jones, Mann, and Trenberth seek, indeed will stop at nothing to ensure. In sheer survival mode, we wonder: What is to be done?

  3. Daganstein Says:

    How is this not just “winter”?
    Reply: Of course it’s winter – but an unusually cold one. -PG

    • DirkH Says:

      To see what will happen, here are some pictures of the snow catastrophy of 1978/79 in Northern Germany.

      This is what awaits many people when the winters get harder.

      • DirkH Says:

        One more word: 12 people died in Western Germany. Intense rescue efforts by the army freed most of the people lost in villages from their peril.

        In Eastern Germany, Communist at that time, the entire energy production shut down. Shortly before they had decided to use only home-grown brown coal power plants to become independent. The cold meant they were no more able to dig the humid brown coal so they had to shut off all power plants.

        How many people died in Eastern Germany was never communicated. It must have been far more than the 12 in the west – it was a country with 14 Million inhabitants under a total blackout in winter!

        So the technology of the West saved our asses. The run-down technology of the East failed spectacularly.

        The West immediately offered help. The West asked the communists what they needed; rotary hammers they said, and within 3 hours some trucks with a few hundred rotary hammers were at the border so they could hammer some brown coal out of their pits to restart energy production.

        Technology saves your ass. And only technology.

  4. Brian H Says:

    And remember that the GISS et al use ONE sensor in the Canadian Arctic (out of the 100 available), located well within the palpable town limits heat bubble of Eureka, on Ellesmere Island. IOW, the northern data is heat-biased cr**.

    • Ed Caryl Says:

      Oh, but there are people around to shovel the snow away from the sensor. Many of the others are automated sites where they remain buried in the long winters. This is a problem, but no one has tried to solve it because they are getting the answers they want.


  5. [...] would you. Mus be those natural cycles again. Oh yeah NOAA is predicting cold weather next year. NOAA Models Predict Big Arctic Deep Freeze P Gosselin – NoTricksZone __________________ Comparing climate alarmist Hansen to Cassandra is WRONG. Cassandra's (Greek [...]


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