Naomi Oreskes’ Denial Of Non-Consensus: A Look At A Failed Historian

Naomi Orsekes

My how the times have changed. Climategate, and all the other gates surrounding it, have turned things inside-out. The science is far from settled, as many of us have long suspected. The ranks of sceptic scientists are swelling, public opinion has swung; even the Royal Society has adopted a new position on climate science –  by George, there might be more to it than CO2 molecules after all!  The mainstream media is slowly coming around, too.

Yet, others refuse to hear it. 

Here’s a Youtube clip of Naomi Oreskes’ Truth About Denial presentation in 2007. Some of you may have watched it already. That presentation is in two parts.

Part 1: The Truth Part (CO2 drives global warming, there’s a consensus, science is settled).
Part 2: The Denial Part (There’s a disinformation campaign out there, denying it all).

Okay, that was back in 2007. Back then global warming science looked convincing, and so maybe such a position was plausible.

But here’s Oreskes in March 2010  in a presentation called the Merchants of Doubt, which is pretty much the same as her 2007 Truth About Denial. Despite all the new revelations, scandals and shifting scientific viewpoints, Oreskes continues to play the same music.  In the 2010 presentation she continues to ask (paraphrasing):

How can there be so much scepticism in the public when there’s consensus among scientists?  Where does all the public doubt come from?

And answers by claiming it all stems from a tiny few merchants of doubt, who she describes as:

…a small but powerful group of people aided and abetted by well-funded think-tanks and a compliant mass media…not for money, but in defense of an ideology of laissez-faire governance, opposition to gevernment regulation in all forms.

Yes, ladies and gentlemen, Oreskes still believes, despite all the new revelations we’ve seen over the last few months, that all the scepticism and denialism out there today is still coming from the same sinister merchants of doubt. You’d think she’d would step back for a minute and re-evaluate her position. No chance.  Instead her reaction is to drive her head yet further into the sand.

Oreskes claims to be a science historian. My question is: Will she wake up and start a new chapter for the science history books? Or will she continue repeating her fairy tales? Don’t hold your CO2 breath.

UPDATE: Yesteday this post appeared at position No. 6 when one googled “Naomi Oreskes’ Denial”. Today it has dropped off to No. 17.

Katla: The Game Changer?

Sleeping Katla

According to MSNBC, the Katla volcano in Iceland is about to blow her top – hat tip Joe Bastardi Joe Bastardi blog. Katla is the big sis of Eyjafjallajökull;I mean the really big sis. And according to an initial research paper by the University College of London Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction:

Analysis of the seismic energy released around Katla over the last decade or so is interpreted as providing evidence of a rising … intrusive magma body on the western flank of the volcano.

and

 We conclude that given the high frequency of Katla activity, an eruption in the short term is a strong possibility.

A Katla eruption could be an order of magnitude greater than Eyjafjallajökull and possibly emit significant quantities of ash and sulphur particles into the stratosphere. Read the part about volcanoes at FOCUS warming will end. If that happens, then it’s a game-changer.

And look for a lot of uneasy alarmists to use it as a back door out of an increasingly embarrassing situation.

Dennis, Born To Be Wild (1936 -2010)

Star in Easy Rider

German FOCUS Magazine: Warm Times Will Soon Be Over!

The prominent German online news magazine  FOCUS  reports that 2010 may set a new NASA high temperature record. The cause of the recent warmth is El Nino. But FOCUS then throws ice-cold water on any warmist dream of an overheating planet, at least for the next few years, and writes that scientists believe: “Womöglich aber sind die warmen Zeiten für unseren Globus bald vorüber”.

In English:

Quite possibly, the warm times for the planet will soon be over.

The FOCUS report looks at three factors, which I present in 3 parts.

Part 1: La Nina

FOCUS first zeroes in on La Nina, and quotes AccuWeather meteorologist Joe Bastardi:

There are wild cards in the climate system that have changed the previous climate events. Now we’ve got a weak solar cycle and the prospect of increased volcanic activity. Together with a La Nina, it all could be a troublesome triple whammy.

FOCUS also quotes Joe D´Aleo of TV Weather Channel:

We’ll have La Nina conditions before the summer is over, and it will intensify further through the fall and winter. Thus we’ll have cooler temperatures for the next couple of years.

Part 2: Solar Activity

The next big factor is the sun, which has worried a number of scientists over the last couple of years. It refuses to start-up with a new cycle. 2008 had 266 spotless days and 2009 had 261.

FOCUS writes:

Now some scientists fear the solar slumber could herald in a new Little Ice Age. This period, which extended from the 15th to the 19th century, was characterised by bitter cold winters and cool, wet summers which left grains and crops rotting in the fields.

FOCUS magazine then acknowledges the Maunder and Dalton Minimums, thus indirectly refuting Mann’s version of climate history. The German media is waking up!

FOCUS then quotes Joe D’Aleo:

If the number of spots does not climb over 40 or 50 during the next maximum, which would mean a low level of solar energy, then we have to reckon with much lower temperatures in the coming years.

Part 3: Volcanoes

Volcanoes in Iceland are coming alive. So far the ash clouds have been too small to have any effects on the climate. The real risk, however, is that it may be a foreboding of something much worse to come – the eruption of the mighty neighbouring Katla volcano. Katla has a far more immense chamber of magma. It erupts on average every 70 years and in tandem with Eyjafjalla. The last Katla eruption was in 1918, thus making an eruption overdue.

According to Joe Bastardi:

Katla could be a game-changer. If it erupts and throws ash and sulfur particles into the stratosphere, then the global temperature will plummet.

The triple whammy of La Nina, low solar activity and increased volcanic activity all acting together would certainly put global warming on the back burner for a while. But some scientists, like Prof. Mojib Latif of the University of Kiel, insist that warming will resume once the cooling factors fade off, and that global temperature increases of 5°C by the end of the century cannot be excluded.

In the meantime, get ready for cooling.

Adios El Nino

The equatorial Pacific is now showing a distinct band of cool surface water developing. Many forecasters have already written the obituary for the now departing El Nino, which pushed global surface temperatures up by some 0.8°C over the last few months.

Developing La Nina

Source: unisys.com

The newly developing La Nina will probably erase much of that in the months ahead. For example, Accu Weather meteorologist Joe Bastardi predicts cooling over the next year or two. But he does say this year’s Arctic ice melt may challenge the record low set in 2007. One more but – he says that after that the ice will recover over the next 2 years and reach normal levels. So all you obsessed global warmists out there, milk it while you can. It’s your last chance (if Joe’s right).

Read the latest Wrap-Up from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

Casus Belli – Suspend Democracy!

Trust me

Here’s another excellent post by Eduardo Zorita at the Klimazwiebel.  

In this BBC podcast (takes a minute or so to load), the view of green elitists is that we have casus belli. Thus democracy has to be suspended and common sense authoritarianism has to take over – just for a while, until things are put back in their proper order. The general population is just too stupid to understand it, and is only getting in the way. (Actually, and thankfully, they’re too informed and many people understand precisely what this is about).  

“The situation is urgent, the world is going to hell in a handbasket – let us rescue the planet. Trust us,” we are constantly told.  

I’m trying to think of a veggie or fruit that’s green outside and brown inside. The closest thing I can think of is a rotten avocado. For me it’s even disturbing that the BBC even gives equal time and weight to the green nutjobs who propose suspending democracy and taking us back to the German Democratic Republic – East Germany, behind the Berlin Wall, for those of you who may have already forgotten. “Trust us” just isn’t good enough. History shows that populations have been burned by this all too often.  

The good news is that authoritarianism only works if there’s consent. But there can be no consent unless there is a genuine debate. That’s where the problem lies for the kook warmists. They’ll never win this debate, and they know it. Indeed consent has been massively eroding lately. Their science has been exposed as a hoax. They’ve lost the case and their desperation has caused them to lose any rationality they may have once had.

Update: Bishop Hill has found the perfect food staple to symbolise enviro-leftists: pistachios. Green only on the surface, brown inside, and in total, a nut throughout.

As Governments Bedwet Over AGW, World Faces Potential Food Catastrophe

      While world governments bedwet over a fantasized climate catastrophe taking place 100 years out, mankind could be facing a potential catastrophic food shortage. A worthhile read (see link below).

A fungus threatens 20% of the world's food supply.

      The disease is Ug99, a virulent strain of black stem rust fungus (Puccinia graminis), discovered in Uganda in 1999, threatens the world’s wheat supply. Read the scary details here: http://www.wired.com/magazine/2010/02/ff_ug99_fungus/all/1

      Wheat provides 20% of all calories consumed by humans. According to Nobel laureate Norman Borlaug, father of the Green Revolution:

This thing has immense potential for social and human destruction.

      According to wired.com, the fungus attacks the stem of the wheat plant, causing it to wither and die.

Stem rust is the polio of agriculture, a plague that was brought under control nearly half a century ago as part of the celebrated Green Revolution. After years of trial and error, scientists managed to breed wheat that contained genes capable of repelling the assaults of Puccinia graminis, the formal name of the fungus.

But now it’s clear: The triumph didn’t last.

      The new fungus has spread from Africa and into the Middle East. It would only take a  traveller with a single spore on his shirt to transport it to the USA and Canada.

The pathogen makes its presence known to humans through crimson pustules on the plant’s stems and leaves. When those pustules burst, millions of spores flare out in search of fresh hosts.

      It goes to show that nature has a bag full of nasty tricks, and there’s nothing you can do to stop her. All you can do is adapt, hopefully quickly enough. But if you waste your time trying to appease her, and don’t invest your resources wisely in adapting, you’ll get eliminated.

German Industry Says: Take A Break!

The online German Der Spiegel reported yesterday here that the EU Commission wants to accelerate cuts in CO2 emissions, but industry and government officials are saying “no!”. With economies gripped by hardship and overall growing public scepticism (see here), calls for even more draconian measures to curb CO2 emissions are ringing hollow.

German Minister of Economics Rainer Bruederle says it’s time to take a break from efforts to protect the climate:

It accomplishes nothing for environmental protection when Europe goes it alone and jobs are sent to other regions of the world.

Werner Schnappauf, Director of the German Association of Industry adds:

As long as there is no international and legally binding climate protection treaty,  industry rejects increasing the climate reduction target from 20% to 30%. There are only disadvantages for both the climate and economy if Europe rushes and goes it alone.

      The EU wants to ratchet up the target from 20% to 30% less CO2 emissions than 1990 by 2020. Other leading German government officials think they can both appease the climate gods by making human sacrifices at the Altar of Climate, and at the same time boost the economy. German Minister of the Environment Norbert Roettgen and other EU environment ministers have said they want to go ahead and require the 30% target, with or without an international treaty.

It’s good for the environment and also for the incentive to innovate, from which the German industry would greatly profit.

      According to the EU Commission, a CO2 reduction of 30% by 2020 would lead to a 0.54% drop in GDP. Can’t these people think of ways to make our lives easier for a change?

Pachauri And The Chicago Climate Exchange

Pachauri CCX advisory board member

EIKE, the European Institute for Climate and Energy, a sponsor of the 4th ICCC in Chicago, has dug up a some information on the Chicago Climate Exchange CCX, where Maurice Strong and a host of other influential leftists are among its board members.

When it comes to cap & trade, i.e. emissions trading, we’re talking serious money here. According to Dr. Richard Sandor, an economist and CCX architect, cap-and-trade represents a $10 trillion per-year market.

Recognizing the enormous profit potential, Al Gore’s Generation Investment Management (GIM)  purchased a 10 percent stake in CCX and became the company’s fifth largest co-owner. Yet all this coziness shouldn’t surprise anyone.

But taking a closer look at the CCX Advisory Board, we find among the likes of Joe Kennedy, Ed Begly, Thomas Lovejoy – Rajendra Pachauri. It’s known that Pachauri has huge investments in carbon markets, but this is ridiculous. Talk about a scam. Yet another gate to add to the long list.

Conflict of interest? Nahhhh

Update: FYI, CCX Directors here and External Advisory Board members here.

Mammoth Junk Science

Many news outlets have reported today that humans hunted and killed off the large methane-emitting mammoths 13,000 years ago, thus causing global cooling. This report has been published in Nature by some University of New Mexico scientists. Again man, armed with nothing but spears and arrows, may have been the culprit in significant climate change. Read here for example. Here, the Telegraph reports:

But by 11,500 years ago, around 80% of these big mammals had vanished forever.

Their disappearance, accounting for more than 114 lost species, came within 1,000 years of the arrival of humans in the New World.

So the mammoth killing ended at about 11,500 years ago? Wouldn’t that mean that it should have gotten colder from then on as a result? Let’s take a look at the temperatures over the last 20,000 year or so.

This graphic is taken from: oceanworld.tamu.edu.

At about 11,500 years ago the Ice Age ended! With all those big inefficient herbivores disappearing and the millions of tons of methane along with it, wouldn’t the hypothesis suggest that the Ice Age would have deepened, and not ended? Using AGW logic, less methane means more cooling, which leads to more ice, which then leads to more albedo, more cooling, more ice…you know an irreversible tipping point into a permanent ice age. But the opposite happened!

To me this stinks of more junk science by a journal desperate to rescue a science that’s quickly going the way of the mammoths: to extinction. This will be debunked in a matter of days.

Update: The following graphic from Jeff Masters Weather Underground shows the temperature for the last 100,000 years. Note all the spikes during the period. Why are the Younger Dryas caused by man and all the other dips not? Clearly the graphic shows that climate is always changing, often wildly. Belching mammoths were not the drivers.